Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: My take

"Compute the monthly burn rate times 24-25 mos. and that's the amount of the financing that they are after at this time."

 

I took a similar read from the news release this morning and agree they were setting an anchor for the amount of cash they are looking for.  But I only gave them 15 months of the current burn rate taking them to March of 2025.  I have the burn rate at $1.1 million per month after removing non-cash expenses.  I don't expect Tom would want the account balance to be zero at that time so I added a few million on to that.  I also gave them a 25% probability on the "single-digit millions" they expect from the AI market in 2024 per the 11/6 news.  

I expect they are looking to raise $20 million.  I ran this exercise to prevent my own sticker shock when the numbers come out.  That will help me keep the emotions down. 

I realize additional revenue could reduce that number but with the delays on the customer side to this point I expect a more conservative approach than what got us here today.  I also don't think they will try to time a follow-up raise with better conditions over the next 15 months.  

Cheers and good luck from this arm-chair CFO. 

 

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