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Message: Re: New article on Poet partner Celestial AI

I understand that some of these timelines have shifted slightly.  This is from August last year and since then we have been updated about a number of those products.  It is hard to keep up and perhaps they need to update this slide.  

100G/200G CWDM Tx/Rx - This is the POET ONE™ and POET Legacy™ product range I believe and BFYY placed a $3M order in May 23 for the 100G CWDM Tx/Rx POET ONE.  I guess this means production was 1H 2023 and not 2H 2022, so a slight delay. In January 23 we found out ADVA are also using the 4x100G CWDM and 4x100G LR4 (depending on distance required) engines in their MicroMux Quattro product ranges.  Samples have gone out in Q1 and production is slated for 2H of 23.  They're also using the 200G LR4 I believe.  So, for the 100G LR4 product on the slide they appear to be about on track.  We await news from ADVA.

Most recently in July we had a further update about the 100G LR4 POET Legacy product.  Samples going to 3 companies. 

https://poet-technologies.com/news/2023-jul-26.html

Difficult to know if they mean production samples or beta samples.  I suspect production samples based on the below comment from this release.  I'd imagine beta sampling would take much longer than 6 months to get to volume production.

"POET expects to complete the qualification of 100G LR4 Transmit and Receive optical engines and start volume production at its joint venture partner, Super Photonics, by Q1 2024. The ethernet transceiver market for 100G LR4 is projected by LightCounting to sustain a steady run rate with estimated cumulative sales of $1.6 billion over the 2024-2028 period"

 

The 400G/800G FR4 RXOE was ahead of schedule in March 22 - 

https://poet-technologies.com/news/2022-mar-3.html

“We’re excited to begin sampling and qualification of our 400G/800G FR receivers ahead of our original schedule,” says chairman & CEO Dr Suresh Venkatesan.

Then the 400G FR4 were released for production, along with the 100G CWDM and 200G in January 23, which is slightly behind schedule if i'm not mistaken? 

https://poet-technologies.com/news/2023-jan-10.html

"Super Photonics has received an order from a customer for transceiver prototype builds for end customer qualification. POET and Super Photonics are actively working with at least four other customers to complete transceiver level design and qualification of the optical engines and expect to ramp to high volume in the second half of 2023. POET expects to release more products to production in the first half of the year"

So we wait for their customers to varify and then a ramp to high volume production in the 2H of 23.  We also know that Luxshare are going to be using the 400G and 800G FR4 with TIA's - 

https://poet-technologies.com/news/2023-feb-2.html

"POET expects to complete design verification testing and reliability qualification of the RXOEs in the first half of 2023 and start production in the second half of 2023"

So again, it looks like we're a little behind schedule on this, but Luxshare have to do what they have to do and it takes time.

Then back in March and at OFC POET launched POET Infinity which is the 800G and 1.6T Receive FR4 solution with TIA's.  This appears to be on schedule and we await news about sampling and prodcution.

We also have the AI product POET Starlight based on the Lightbar, which we know CAI are using in their Photonic Fabric platform and they're working with the likes of Microsoft, Google and Amazon.  This collaboration stands to make POET a very high revenue company alone (there are others), even if we forget about what I've outlined above.

So, yes, there are delays based on this slide from August 22.  But, I take umbrage when people say things like "How can Suresh say that everything is going according to plan and we are still empty hands here in August 2023??"  It simply isn't the case and I am inclined to listen to Suresh when he says things are going to plan.  You could argue with the CAI stuff we're ahead of plan.

 Please excuse the cobbled together nature of my post.  I realise different fonts is annoying.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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