Can we just chill out for a bit here?
posted on
Jul 28, 2023 12:27PM
Agoracomers,
I know you are impatient with the stock price. I know, because I am too.
Throughout my years with the stock market, I have not seen a shareholder base being this involved in trying to promote a company. Most people just buy the stock, if it doesn't work out, they sell and move on. Not with this investment.
The reason is simple enough: POET's Optical Interposer is supposed to change the photonic world, a nearly $1 trillion industry, yet the valuation is dirt cheap. By all metrics and logics, the OI is superior to existing solutions, as confirmed by the likes of Sanan IC, Adva/Adtran and Luxshare. These are not small fries, they are the industry themselves, and yet the stock refuses to take a valuation deemed reasonable to us. A back of the envelope discounted cashflow calculation would place the company at around $500-$800M market cap in the conservative cases.
What does this tell us? The market does not believe POET's estimates are realistic. We shareholders are the market. The people of this forum are some of the most informed when it comes to POET's progress, and the low price tells me that the most die hard believers don't really believe.
So what does all this mean? For one, the company's valuation can only be remedied to reflect its true potential if management delivers on its production/revenue goals. In 2020, we were promised production in 2021. In 2021, promised 2022, and so on. No amount of promotion and podcasts will fix slippery timelines.
Two, we need to understand that POET produces hardware, not software. In 2023, if you make a groundbreaking software like ChatGPT, it will permeate the world overnight. This is not so with hardware. Hardware goes through prototyping, testing and deployment cycles that take years. With POET awaiting Adtran to begin production, we are at the final step of this years-long process. The day the company's valuation soars is not far.
Once the current market, us current shareholders, send the company's valuations higher, the broader market will pick it up. We do not need to concern ourselves with amateur, desperate promotion effort.