Re: It is time.
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 07, 2023 11:44AM
Poet is still a pre-revenue company! People here are demanding it to be a robust must revenue company now. If we keep pressuring for revenue right now, it gives naysayers the fuel to keep Poet in their doghouse.
Poet has projected $250 million projected in revenue for 2025. In my opinion $250 million might even be conservative with all else that Poet has going on. Maybe $50-$100 million (I'm guessing) projected for 2024??? SPX (JV revenue projected to commence early 2023), and probably only NRE revenue for Poet and some start-up customer production revenue for Poet financials for 2023??? Any customer production revenue now, though small, might momentarily be a catalyst to move up Poet's share price presently. But is that where Poet is getting close to announcing anyway?
So based on the "revenue" argument here, 2023 and 2024 have the ??? (question marks). So if the market is expecting revenue in big ways now, then it will be disappointed. That disappointment seems to rest here with those who challenge Poet management to act now. Has anyone considered that they can only act when their customers are ready to act? Different projects come on-stream at different times.
Sure some actual customer production revenue might drive up the share price now. However, that would be small. But what will sustain and rapidly grow the share price? More customers and announcement of customer production revenue. Any reasonable recognized name which implicity infers the size of the market addressed through them and with Poet will drive up its share price.
When a company has very exciting prospects ahead of itself, it only needs to announce what is about to happen short term, and then the share price rapidly rises ahead of production and sales. But when that happens, Poet will be scrutinized by analysts for projected revenues and verification by its financials, contracts, some key customer names, more development partnerships, and interviews with media news outlets.
Poet has not over-promoted themselves, and they have been tight-lipped as certain customers demand secrecy, but they have used strong phrases at times that might have fermented share price disappointment with phrases like "released into production" and other morsels of wordiness kept small investors confused. "up and to the right" was the worst one.
In my opinion, this will all change now as Poet is coming out. Names (where possible), announcement of contracts (even those pre-revenue) will drive the share price up before actual revenues tally to move up towards all projections. Then growing revenue momentum along with more contract announcements MUST continue to support the higher share prices.
Monolithic