I think I posted here once or twice what I called my worst-case scenario. To remind all of you folks that are already hanging around here for years and even more as a service for the new ones, I am going to outline it once again.

The worst-case scenario is a though experiment. I am not saying that things will happen like this, but if they do, you know that they won’t get worse – at least not under the assumptions:

• POET’s business plan is executed as intended.
• All the marketing activities aimed at increasing the share price will not help, will not trigger any significant buying pressure, will not drive the share price up, but will drive it only to the right.

Under these assumptions, the company will, totally independend of the share price, generate significant revenues and profits from a certain point in time. What point in time will that be?

Well, according to the company presentation of last December, production of the first products (100G/200G CWDM and LR4 solutions) should commence in the second half of this year.

Let’s assume this will happen (remember, we are talking worst case) only by the end of H2/2022. Let’s also allow some time for shipping to and payment by customers, so that POET likely has the money in the books by Q1/2023.

Assuming (again, worst case) that POET keeps mum about the all this, it will be revealed in the subsequent quartly financial report. That is, these revenues and earnings should be in the Q1/2023 financial statement, which is due by the end of May 2023.

This in turn would catapult POET to the top of all those P/E lists that are automatically generated by bots, due to its low share price and high earnings. This will trigger a lot of curiosity and, finally, buying.

Tom Mika will probably disagree – I remember our Zoom conversation on this after one of those conference presentations. He will claim that institutional investors would buy far earlier, because they could do that now via Nasdaq. Well, I hope he is will be right; I’d be delighted! That would be a better-than-worst-case scenario, and of course I’d take any such scenarios. But if they all don’t come to pass and it comes down to the worst-case scenario, even then the sky would not fall.