I don't know Baba, there are a lot of reasons why people do things, and I don't believe you've covered them all in your three points.
Suffice to say that if the warrants are well into the money, at any time, there is incentive to exercise...if not, then not so much.
Sure, the company could call warrant holders, but I suggest that reeks of desperation and usually doesn't work out well.
Trying to predict what goes on in the minds of investors is a mug's game.
We do know the share count is up (HT Rainer) so that should be good for the company as it is money in the bank.
Tick Tock....