POET will supply the manufacturers of components for the Optoelectronics Industry, notice the plural.  There are many well specified verticals in this industry, note its a plural again.  I can’t imagine that the POET OI will be a stand alone solution to the industry, nor can I imagine that the industry will rely on one supplier, nevertheless there is the real possibility that POET is in the lead for both performance and cost of manufacturing and has the possibility of being the leader in the field.  

My thought is that much of the silence is about setting up the ramp up partners to produce the OI on a large scale, thus I favour Poetpowers figures in terms of units produced.   The run out will not take place over night and we will not get a real feel for the actual production numbers until the end of the year at the very earliest, although SV may well set out the predictive figures which is why Mika took the trouble to explain SAM etc. (See revenue guidance under President’s DD)

POET remains a long term investment. So my plan, I’m running out of years, is to salami slice my way, through my holdings as and when the SP is attractive to do. The once hoped for Big Bang sale of Intellectual Property has receded but one does wonder whether the necessary quick ramp up is only possible by a large company, buyout therefore is another reason for silence. Somehow I think SV has a greater vision for POET.

The exercise of a number of individuals, more the merrier, having a stab at predicting, is not a bad way to estimate SP, but the methods used has to be more than a ‘wet finger in the air’ to qualify.  So I am going to base my prediction on the actual past performance of SP for the short term guess and that’s $C 01.60.  In the long term I would go for examples of firms of similar nature and development and I would favour circa $C 25.00.  

So don’t slice your salami to quickly.

sula