I was asked to post a text here that I wrote on the German discussion board. It was an answer to thoughts of another poster, so it´s not about a complete picture, it discusses some particular points.

Leaving hold on Denselight:
The factory hall and probably also the machines will likely belong to somebody else soon. The new owner probably has most of the workers on his payroll. But that does not mean that the new DL does not produce anything for POET anymore. DL will continue to process orders for POET, which will then be invoiced. Maybe POET will rent a few square meters later and put its own machines into the hall, which are operated by their own people. But that will not be the previous DL products, but rather own new developments.
In my opinion DL was never thought to aggressively expand the existing product lines. They did is as a sideline. DL was about development, test runs and showing that the interposer can be integrated into the classic production processes. With future applications this may happen in the DL factory or in a rented corner in Malaysia or elsewhere, it does not matter.
I do not know what happens with the DL products. Will they continue to be produced for POET? That will reduce the margins. Is the product line sold with the factory? Is Suresh interested in this at all? He thinks in other directions. I think it would be a pity, because real sales may be given up. On the other hand it wasn´t too much, so it won´t really help POET to survive.
With DL POET does not sell its basis. It´s only hardware. POET chose a fabless/fablight approach, and I find that decision beneficial for this small company. No millstone around their neck, more flexibility. Sometimes you have to leave classical ways of thinking, remember Kaiam. My conclusion: The factory is not necessarily needed, but the dollars from the sale are. Goodbye Denselight.

Is the technology groundbreaking?
I'm not a technician, physicist or computer scientist. But even for me, the problem of the ever-increasing bandwidth is obvious. This will be offered only with optical transmission. But as currently data cannot be processed optically, but electronically, a coupling must be done. And at that point I can only believe what I hear: POET has the best solution so far. Best to integrate, super performance, smallest footprint, cheap, stable and low consumption. The first test products are out to validate, apparently no problems are expected. It's always possible for someone with a better solution to show up, but that's normal business risk that all companies have. And: the market is big and fragmented enough that many approaches can live side by side.

Is the product too special?
Currently the focus lays on the transciever market (Datacom/Telecom). Certainly this is special, but big, growing and interesting. I think Suresh has chosen the market because he knows his way around and knows exactly what is needed. There are still many future applications, as it is a platform technology with all sorts of possibilities. But it´s OK for me when POET choses an achievable goal first. Later you can go into other verticals. Whether this will happen by POET itself or by license sales is a completely different question. And don´t forget the Palomar-connection and MillView. They are already laying the foundations, methinks.

Management thinks too big?
Suresh thinks big. But he thinks very far in advance and what he has decided seems right to me so far. He has a clear idea of ​​what it takes to build a solid company. And he carries it out. Remember the management before Suresh: nothing similar was recognizable - in hindsight, it scares me that I did not see it back then. Shame on me. The current management is not a risk factor, it is as important as the technology. I am observing other stocks that have great products, but don´t make any progress, because they are lacking business knowhow. So the best products sometimes won´t help. The POET of today is completely different. Suresh is one of the biggest assets we have. Without him we probably already had written off. He builds a network of companies and relationships, cogwheel for cogwheel, and everything seems to mesh. But admittedly: the necessary structures are certainly not ready yet. Maybe you could start smaller and bind yourself to a particular company as their supplier, but then you have dependencies and you are busy with that and you are not getting anywhere. As POET chose another way, we have another risk: If the revenues do not explode, how much future capital-raise can POET stand?

I see no reason to be a brainless POET-fanboy, but I am a fan of Suresh Venkatesan. I am happy with the progress POET made in the last months.  There is much more to talk about, and not everything is rosy. The technology is not finally validated, the competitors are big global corporations, the world economy is weakening, we don´t have any real deals inked. The next two years are far from easy-going.

These are my own thoughts, built on the few information POET provides and the great work of all posters. I am more relaxed than ever, still it would be crazy to bet my whole financial existence on POET. But it´s worth a little piece of it.

Sorry for the Sula-ish length of this text :-)

Holk

Addendum: Mika´s future was discussed here. Remember: He orchestrated two financing rounds and they went quite well. He is the best CFO POET ever had. Maybe the first real one. He built the bridge to the DL sale. If the DL sale works out, POET has enough cash to survive until significant revenues are expected (not before 2020, according to POETs presentations). POET is in a stronger position for the upcoming discussions with customers. The financial situation was my most urgent concern. I will not condemn his work so far.