Ignore the very short term SP : Keep your eyes on the size of the prize !!
posted on
Jul 19, 2018 06:57PM
The SP is rediculously detatched from where it could / should be, considering Poet is on the real brink of disruptive product commercialization.
I ignore the very short-term SP .... no point in getting heartburn over it.
What we should be focused on is the sales execution that we expect to see starting in Q4.
ROE sales go live in Q4 / bridging Q1, with TROE circa Q3, give or take.
Just those 2 products are very significant to our customers.
The question we should be asking ourselves, rather than posting miserable doom and gloom on todays SP, is the sales ramp-up.
Poet, to start with, is entering a multi-billion dollar market with 2 disruptive products.
A mere circa $30M Sales with full margin of 50% (very realistic) would see POET hover around the BE point. A drop in the ocean.
At $100M, just on 50% margin, just on these 2 products, once converted to EPS with a soft x10 muliplier, we have around $1.70 USD SP.
At $150M .... SP circa $2.50 US
At $200M .... SP circa $3.44 US
The question is what will the ramp-up be. Assuming once the ROE is qualified and sales commence, we should get sales guidance.
Then the market will be like pigs at the trough.
We are in excellent hands, Suresh et al are executing and pushing towards the commercialization goal line.
Until then, look away and enjoy life. To do otherwise is needless self-imposed frustration.
I firmly believe that in Q4 we will all be smiling from ear to ear.
And 2019 will be spectacular.
All in my opinion of course, but the writing is on the wall .... just go back and read the NR's, the AGM presentation and get your head in the correct space.
No more from me until the Accelink MOU becomes a Sales agreement, or we get A.N.Other Sales agreement.
POET 2018