Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Re: FJ's valuation of Poet based on real progress to date?
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Mar 31, 2018 09:06PM
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Mar 31, 2018 11:35PM

Disco the way most people view the market cap of a company is to look at what their potential market is and the probability of success in penetrating that market. And of course comparisons with other companies that are at a similar stage of development and have comparable market size.

So to start with I will make a comparison with a company which I believe has a disruptive technology for lithium ion batteries specifically with a break-through in cathodic material that offers lower cost and higher density along with greater cycling capability. That company which I have mentioned in the past is Nano One technology another Canadian company. They currently have a very similar market cap. Slightly higher than POET but POET's actual addressable market dwarfs NNO and commercial production of the battery materials will require engineering at much greater scale beyond the pilot plant and a large build out of plants to process material which is going to take time. Poet’s tech is built using existing equipment. NNO has NDAs in Place. POET now has an MOU which apparently the Chinese generally regard as a firm agreement. But without getting into that the potential is there for POET to ramp commercial production very quickly through partnerships well beyond the quoted revenue numbers provided at the last AGM.

The total addressable market for photonic integration is said to be $54 billion by 2021. In the case of NNO the total cathodic market by 2025 is $10 billion

"POET indicated at its recent annual shareholders’ meeting a capacity to deliver to revenue potential of $50 million in 2019 and $250 million in 2021"

Since that time POET has made announcements representing very significant progress.

Poet also announced that it has successfully completed development of the company's low-loss dielectric waveguide stack and is readying the technology for transfer to manufacturing. As part of its continued technology development, Poet has demonstrated a 10-times improvement in the optical loss of its waveguide stack as compared with the performance publicly disclosed at the Photonics Integrated Circuit (PIC) conference in March, 2017. Optical transmission loss within the dielectric stack has now been measured to be below 0.2 decibel per centimetre, which renders the stack virtually loss-less for most practical applications. The ability to deposit low-loss and low-stress dielectric waveguides is the first critical step to enabling complex functionality of these waveguides in key applications, such as arrayed waveguide gratings (AWGs), Echelle gratings, Laterally Coupled gratings, multimode interference couplers and splitters, and pass-through waveguides. These functional features are integral to enabling the performance of a transceiver optical engine and essential to the performance of the multiplexer/de-multiplexer component required in wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) systems.

Then two months later:

Dr. Ben Chen, technical director of the datacom and access product department at Accelink, stated: "Poet's optical interposer platform is a step-change advancement compared to other approaches in gaining lower cost of integration and offering a superior method to scale-up to the higher data rates demanded by our customers. We look forward to working with Poet to develop and qualify this technology. Upon successful qualification, we believe we will have an opportunity to gain rapid penetration into key customers and markets, based on both cost and performance advantages."

I think POET’s market cap could be much higher today based on the interposer platform benefits and the ability to potentially ramp commercial production very quickly through partnerships which again were eluded to by Poet's executive chairman, David Lazovsky 20 days after the Accelink MOU was announced.

Peter is joining Poet at a pivotal period in the company's growth and development as we increase the number of engagements with potential strategic partners and customers. I believe Peter's experience and extensive network of contacts will allow him to contribute meaningfully toward our continued progress on the commercialization of Poet's integrated photonics technology."

Just as a side note Acadia has a market cap of $1.5 billion. Their last quarter revenues:

  • Revenue of $86.6 million, decreased 39.2% year-over-year
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Apr 01, 2018 08:11PM
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Apr 01, 2018 10:03PM
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