Re: ten fold target
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 27, 2017 04:46PM
poetry n pain said, "and it seems like there is no interest in this stock...i guess with the price stagnated around a quarter it really shows that no new ivestors believe this is heading anywhere near the target. Too many change of plans and missed deadlines. I mean how many others thought the GAaS stuff was all sorted out and just needed tweaking...i certainly was under that impression. Like the old saying goes ...Fool me once shame on you , Fool me twice ..shame on me. I think there are a lot of shame on me investors here as well as me. Hopefully this new direction comes to fruition and makes us all forget these terrible years."
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Ouch! What a way to start a conversation. Are you a shock jock? As far as saying, "it really shows that no new investors believe this is heading anywhere near the target", I can understand that criticism. However, with sales of $10 to $14 million projected for 2018 and sales of $50 million projected for 2019, and $250 million projected for 2020, when do you think the market will begin to apply multiples on this stock once the sales proof points show a pattern that is leading us there? So, I don't think the $2 target will be met in 2017, but anytime afterwards all bets are on for $2 or more at the very least. However, it will be proven one step at a time at the pace it needs to be done.
The GaAs stuff just needs tweaking. They already proved it in devices at 980nm. They just need to do it at 850nm. Also, to enable the monolithic integration of devices, the 4th pin --- they have the BICFET solution. Unfortunately, despite having the answers and yearning to accelerate this to commercialization, the tweak as you say, is expensive for such a little company. So they are seeking a partner or partners to help fund the completion of the development for the GaAs platform. I would watch out for what name or names that might partner with POET and then let us see how the market reacts then? As far as tweaking goes, if you take all the years of development by Dr. Geoff Taylor and then all that it comes down to is just the 4th pin and epitaxial solution, then in the bigger picture, a tweak is all that is left to do to achieve monolithic integration in the GaAs platform. It's more about the money to do this and not so much as about the solution. Of course, part of that expense is to optimize the epitaxy to make it commericially viable --- they already know it works!
Your comment "too many changes and missed deadlines" more or less has to do with management prior to Suresh V. and more to do with Peter Copetti and previous Opel management. However, statements like "up and to the right" and "another week or two" by Ajit Manocha in 2015, did not help adjust our expectations. They inflamed them. Since that time POET has stuck to their roadmap and adjusted accordingly based upon customer feedback. Remember, if you are going to develop a new product and you want customers to buy them, then you must make sure your developments concur with their expectations and not forum posters on a public forum.
Your last comment, " "Hopefully this new direction comes to fruition and makes us all forget these terrible years." ", I sort of agree with, but I would rephrase it as:
"Hopefully, the process of finding the right partner or partners for the GaAs plaform, and the current solution (BICFET) for the 4th pin or even a better solution with such a partner or partners, along with a growing list and robust sales of the near and medium-term products in the InP platform (of which InP was mentioned in the initial roadmap at the THM presentation back on May, 2015) not only comes to fruition, but makes us all forget the terrible years as well."
Monolithic