Re: Revenue explored & other thoughts on the Presentation
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 29, 2017 01:08PM
Shash places significance on the statement on page 22 of the presentation regarding epitaxial layers (epi) described as 'similar' rather than the 'same'. Given that very little has emerged on the technical difficulties encountered apart from the fact that 'difficulties' have been encountered, I don’t find her argument and the implication that we are still in R&D stage regarding epitaxial layers or the implication that we have some distance to go totally convincing as regards the AOC development. For me this needs greater explanation/evidence and I would be very grateful if Shash could expand on her idea other than the semantics over 'the same' and 'similar' which I accept have a hint of change but for me that may equally be because there are strong reasons to accept that variances in epi layers as entirely beneficial in different applications i.e. just s simple statement of fact. Or am I being too simplistic or stupid which would not be unusual.
I personally would say that the evidence as regards the AOC is that we are over the R&D hump given Bill Ring's announcement in Brussels and I also feel that there are other solid reasons to keep AOC commercialisation out at late 2018.
I accept that Its wrong of me to become all 'cloaks and daggers' about POET, but there is logic in the idea that if you are developing a disruptive new technology of the magnitude and potential effect on the industry that POET could have, then the last thing you should do is shout it from the roofs until your are damned sure your have the ability to commercialise your idea already in the basket and ready to go with all the protection you need to fight of the pack out to get you. The lack lustre and descaling of things POET in this presentation seems to me to be potentially of this nature. Others have picked up already on the slightly odd way the company has 'shunned' what some describe as the 'holy grail'.
Another observation to consider is that very small circle in the growth strategy for GaAs on page 8. For me the reason why this might be, as disappointing as it may be, is that when SV has visited Datacentres, he has come up against a certain amount of difficulties. This may have nothing to do with the performance of the POET AOC or the need for the technology but simply the timing of the market that is not ready for change ye. We all commit to technology when we buy a new PC say, then kick ourselves that we had not waited for the next best thing, we simply don't want to put our hands in our pockets again until it really is necessary. So too for the Datacentre market and what SV was hearing from potential customers and so the smaller balloon for GaAs. Additionally, the degree of conservativism needed for a market that is not yet understood needs to be of a higher order than those markets that are well studied. So lets not get to gloomy about small balloons.
My hope is that there is more to emerge on this in the next weeks.
Sula