I agree with Mack's and Morning Star's from last evening, as well as Rainer's post from earlier - possible outcomes/reasoning ... restated ...
BOTTOM LINE - Hold onto your shares. Selling may possibly only play into this mgmt/investment banker cabal to take this company private.
Again, the scenario plays out something like this ...
-
the cabal will continue to drive the price down - perhaps U$.20 or less
-
the cabal then brings a 'white knight' offer to the shareholders promising a 2-3X takeout, and company goes private.
-
at a 3X U$.60 offer, the cabal will steal the company at U$180M
-
mgmt's underwater options are equivalently converted to (likely an even higher) share of NewCo
-
shareholders are at least satisfied that they got out cutting their losses somewhat
-
NewCo has the necessary capital infusion to run comfortably another 18-24 months
-
within which time, without the anchor of running a public company, NewCo succeeds in finishing out the tech and begins to recognize serious revenue.
- a new IPO is orchestrated at a subscription price of something far greater than $5/share. Who's the real winner here?!
Agora held somewhere between 50-60M shares per the 2016 poll. If I am correct and if governed by Ontario law, the cabal - at 90%, will require at least 270M of the newly diluted 300M shares outstanding. Translated, retail need to hold strong to force their hand, and obtain as high as possible a settlement.
Bailing now will only play into their hands if this scenario is correct. Holding will ensure - while not the utopian outcome for which we were all hoping - but the best possible eventual return under this circumstance.
In any case, if this is the play, a sad reality indeed.