Maybe PC was right?
posted on
Oct 14, 2016 09:35PM
There are many threads to follow, I will try not to ramble.
I was really, really relieved to hear that there is no material change to the technical development timeline. I appreciated that they gave a little update before launching into the roadshow presentation.
I am absolutely dismayed that they require an equity financing. I believed that that was not going to be necessary. I believed that significant revenue (NRE) was coming in 1H'17. I was wrong. And now we face more dilution. That sucks. Warrants are the poison on the knife...
The other thing I didn't like about the slide deck and Suresh's delivery was near the end where it was less clearly outlined about revenue coming in 2017 organically grown thru Denselight's SLED et.al. He kind of stuttered there fore a moment. The presentation is full of blue sky. Poet has blue sky coming out of its a..! But what we really need is a clearer picture of the next 12 months (revenue-wise).
I did like that Suresh gave a much clearer picture of what Poet gained in TAM by having InP to disrupt the long and medium reach area of the data comm market. That red piece of the pie is big! And he did a great job of pounding the table on "disruption thru integration." The GPS and camera examples are profound. Poet's margins are going to be FAT.
Finally, my title refers to our previous CEO's comment (was it during the London presentation?) that at some point Poet will have to pay off the investment bankers to get some support for pushing the Poet story to US investors. Is that what is happening now? If they know the VCSEL will be ready by the end of November quarterly CC/update, then a road show for the next two weeks gives institutional investors one month to do their due diligence before Poet announces the VCSEL and gives a positive CC/update.
So the glass half full story for me is that we will find out if the road show "worked" after the Nov. CC/update. If PTK trading volume climbs, we know some new hands are entering the pool.
Full disclosure: when Wednesday's news hit, I sold a significant piece of my investment. Why? Because the facts proved me wrong. My large position was predicated on 1) no more dilution 2) significant NRE coming 1H'17. 3) AOC in 2017. With an equity raise announced, I was genuinely worried that there were significant problems.
After the CC today, I believe that the investment thesis is whole--albeit delayed. I have zero insight into how the stock will trade over the next month, but I restored my full position today, (minus the $100 in commissions round trip). Do I feel like an idiot? Of course! But that's part of the deal.
And I am genuinely wondering how I was convinced that the AOC was going to be a 2017 revenue stream, and now its clear its 2018. I think they kind of fudged on that...