Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: My summary

In the light of the IR statement and explanation regarding "no meaningful change to the timeline", yesterday's news and the investor presentation, here's my summary of how the situation currently looks to me:

  • VCSEL integration is still not completed, but "no fundamental issues with the technology have been discovered". What about the timeline? "No meaningful change to the timeline" is IR's resp. the company's message. Clearly this is not the same as "no change to the timeline at all". I think I might want to revive my previous guesstimate of a delay of one quarter until completion of the VCSEL integration, so let's say Q1 2017.
  • Stretched timelines, DenseLight expansion – this needs money, thus the capital raise. Let's see how much they are going to take up and at what conditions. Not nice, but probably unavoidable.
  • First NRE revenue is still expected for 2017 (slide 31).
  • Commercialization of the VCSEL transceiver in 2018, preceded by prospective customers thoroughly testing the technology.

The prime problem with POET Technologies is communications. They should have given a status regarding VCSEL integration development. Okay, IR has provided us with some information, but that should have been given right away in the news release. And phrases like the "company continues to work through technical hurdles related to the continued development and optimization of layers in the epitaxial stack" or "product development and commercialization timelines can also be contingent on outside factors such as the export control licenses and lead times required for the transfer of epi material to an international third party foundry"? While giving some insight, they are lacking clarity and are too wishy-washy. What are those technical hurdles? How high are they? How many of them? And what does it mean that export regulations etc. can hamper timelines? Do they or don't they? And if they do, for how long?

So in spite of changing the IR firm, communication hasn't improved yet. I believe this is because the company is still not listening to their IR counsel, just as they didn't listen to Chris Chu and Robert Ferri. Indicative to this is not only the above, but also the fact that the investor presentation obviously hasn't gone through any IR quality assurance. Or why are images mis-scaled, see some of the face on slide 8 or even the POET logo on slide 1? This is a no-go! Quality assurance should have caught that, but did not seem to have happened.

Many investors have reached the end of their patience. Yesterday's news are the drop that made their barrel overflow. However, I think exiting was an emotional overreaction and those who dumped will regret it.

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