Thoughts on the Source of Share Holder Value
posted on
Aug 26, 2016 01:40AM
I believe that I am correct in saying that PTI has a three strand approach to providing shareholder value:
1. Merger and Acquisition.
2. Licensing.
3. Direct Sales.
Acquisition of BB and DenseLight is obvious progress for strand one, as is the recent news of the integration of both memory and the very efficient detector towards producing the goal of an Active Optical Cable( AOC) clear progress for strand three.
We currently stand on the cusp of a Quarter (Q4 2016) when more facts will emerge on the integration and engineering of the VCSEL leading, that we are promised in 2017, to the ramp up of production of the AOC and income from direct sales in 2017. Additionally, as a by-product of AOC progress we have learned of potential sales of the highly efficient detector, a factor which has gone very quiet and in my opinion, yet may soon provide us with some comfort in an other wise barren period of news.
As a source of discussion on this board strand 3 appears to absorb most of our attention. This disturbs me because it diverts us from developing Due Diligence towards the two other important strands of PTI strategy that we know so little about.
Strand one M&A - apart from the announcement of the recent acquisitions and that success requires careful integration of the two new companies into the PTI methodology for amsuccessful M&A, we know little about how this is to be done, what resources are being applied to it and how it is progressing. Yet it is from this strand that we are likely to see signs of real income to the company when quarterly results are published.
Strand2 is more complex in some ways as this strand is in all probability covered by NDA and where the company is most silent We have however been informed that further development is preferred to an early commitment in NRE negotiation. Which is good and thinking big. Another tidbit that regularly occurs during management shareholder briefings THM, AGM, Empire Club etc. is the oblique reference to our 'development partners'. Browsing 20F for FY 2015 I came across this sentence:
Legal fees for the Company continue to be a significant expense due to the regular contract reviews, patent reviews and legal costs associated with being a publicly traded Company
From <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437424/000117184316008655/f20f_031716.htm#a_008>
It is the words 'contract reviews' coupled with 'significant expenses' that interests me, because mere personnel contract changes would not amount to' significant expense's whereas contracts with new partners would. NDA prevents us from knowing who, but does it not occur to others here, that whereas in 2014 we were frequently being appraised of 'burn rate' and numbers of quarters remaining financed by the coffers, that such talk has ended. To me this indicates management confidence and leads me to believe that the aforementioned contracts actually bore fruit and were the product of that mysterious period between the end of 2014 and August 2015 which included relationships with Synopsys, BAE and Blevins . A further indication of that confidence are the two acquisitions, which to my mind would not have proceeded unless there was firm financial confidence of future income that went beyond potential deals to actual deals (money down line in the bag). I won't mince words here to state my continued belief that there exists a deal with a major player here, that has lead to this management confidence. This is evidenced by their boldness to not be concerned about burn rates, to press ahead with development of products and the acquisitions as an independent company rather than with a partner that PC envisaged in his 40 engineer deal. The question is does this new found confidence of the new management stem from a deal negotiated by the old guard?
I apologise to those who demand facts but where these are absent we are left only with these other signs to interpret. This may not be sufficient evidence for factoid investors but it is for me and family members who share my belief in POET potential. The point is that whilst I am totally happy with progress towards achieving investor value on strand 3 and look forward to growth achieved in the medium term, it is via strands 1 and 2 that to my mind that will be revealed the short term surprises that will propel the share price forward.
sula