Agoracom: Small Cap Investment - POET Technologies Inc. - Re: POST CC Reactions

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Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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sulasailor

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Re: POST CC Reactions - Expect Results Soon

in response to

POST CC Reactions

sulasailor

posted on Oct 03, 2015 07:58AM

The CC and NR of this week was focused as an operational update, in addition it was perhaps an introduction to the new Exec Team. All this was just as I expected. Indeed I was impressed by the new team members and entirely agree with the new twist in direction and strategy. But I have to congratulate the team on being as secretive as ever and necessarily tight lipped on what really matters to us as shareholders - the Meat.

Good value as the CC was, we are left as usual scuppering around in the bilge like rats in the dark gleaning the hints and intelligence from the dregs and guessing at information that we are being deliberately denied. I therefore make no apologies for playing the joining the dots game yet again.

We had one massive hook left us with the meat on from the CC, the statement 'Expect Results' and I am sure that this was, in at least one case, followed by the word 'soon'. Having spelt out milestones for technical achievement and Revenue, one has to ask, what results can we expect? They surely are not talking about revenue or technical targets that had already got their mentions separately, I believe they are talking about matters which cannot be mentioned commercially sensitive matters . eg. Deals, Mergers and Acquisitions etc ... We were told of the conversations had gone on and anyone that does not believe that the prime work of the deadly duo has not been to establish relationships with customers and partners in the year to date is missing the point of being Co Chairman.

The key fact is that what was not said in the CC is what is really happening in POET and its likely to be soon. Yet this secrecy makes anything I say speculative but I trust based on reasonable probabilities.

Note 1. PET did not get a mention. I previously argued that the BAE 6 months contract to August was all about transfer of VCSEL technology, but this was clearly refuted in the CC. I now believe the possibility is that the technology being transitioned from Lab to Fab at BAE could well be the production of a PET prototype. Which had to be well down the line before the new exec team arrived, as well it being the technical priority at Stoors Lab before their arrival until GT's Technical team were refocussed. I ask you would all this hard work have been abandoned because of the arrival of the new executives? The answer surely is no, in all probability PET was at an advanced stage of development and given that BAE produced a prototype in all probability one is currently in the hand of its customer. It's success is the reason which enables GT to now focus on his true love, light, and the new POET fouccused objectives stated in the operational update.

Note 2. No mention of Blevin or TRAB in the CC. Given the advanced state of the actions in Note 1. Releasing this would be dynamite and no mention could be made but Blevin involvement in TRAB remains a Company Statement it has not withdrawn.

Note 3. The 40 engineers deal. We know PC feelings about this from the London CIC brief, surly he would have been working on this prospect in the months up to the appointment of the new Tech Team, as this would have been work in progress, with a real prospect of achievement sufficient for him to make the confident NASDAQ statements at the CIC. I feel that given notes 1 and 2, we have to ask was that goal accomplished. There seems to me to be a strong possibility that the answer is yes and hence the reason we were left with the hook - 'expect results soon'. I was always attracted to the idea that PET was the IP to be sold off as I believe the real magic lies in POET and an optical future that the company should run with.

Note 4. The Warrior Connection. I was interested to hear AM list of POET products include its use in Satellites - hardened environments. Why would he specifically mention Satellites. Here I believe is the military connection and where Mr Warrior and his firm may offer opportunities for the company growth spelt out by SV and possible M&A that would also constitute- expect results soon.

Note 5. M&A.

M&A was clearly mentioned as a means to grow the company given that current capital is yearmarked for the VCSEL devlopment for 8 quarters. The only capital available for M&A would be that obtained by revenue or the sale of IP. THis lends some credence to the idea that a sale is required to contiplate a part in the theatre of M&A. I believe this adds a measure of probablity that selling or partnering PET IP will form part of the growth of this company again putting the focus on optics ans its uniqueness and real area of domination.

Concusions.

1. My conclusion, from the above dot joining, is that PET IP was at an advanced stage prior to the arrival of the new management team, as was the BAE deal. BAE I believe produced in August a prototype that has given Mr Blevin, or the customer who specified the missing June milestone targets, something to seriously consider. On this basis I speculate that the 'expect results soon' mystery statement lies around a deal, merger, partnership over the production of PET.

2. A corollary of this conclusion is that given that PET development is hived to a partner this has allowed, as stated in the Operational Update, the company's new focus on POET products and in particular Data Communication Products (VCSEL) in the first instance After all is this not what Geoff would want and what he means by the all roads lead to POET statement. It is the light aspect of his IP that differentiates POET from all its competitors and where we have significant advantage over them.

3. What was not said at the CC is where we must look to expect results soon

4. This all adds up for me so I will stay invested and won't risk missing a surge as I feel it is not necessary to to wait until Q3 2016 to get excited something is happening and soon.