Leiningen VS The Ants...
posted on
May 09, 2015 01:50PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leiningen_Versus_the_Ants
A few days ago FJ published a copy of the 2014 R and D leaders in semi conductor expenditures. At first glance, a well written report with some astounding numbers. A careful reading, maybe even several times over for those of us with progressive lenses, reveals much of the future of POET.
http://www.icinsights.com/data/articles/documents/760.pdf
In any business, as in the one I am charged with running, the bottom line is the bottom line. Although this is a callous and cold ideology, it can be mitigated with an appropriate level of humanity when dealing with the men and woman that toil everyday to build the business. Here and under my watch, people are first, foremost and always well respected and looked after. A large part of many companies, especially in the tech sector is the research and development budget. Some large, some small, but both a much needed resource from within.
So the main question is, as early adoption is followed by mainstream use of the product and that follows with further future development of unknown (as yet to us) uses, what happens to the surplus R and D budgets of the companies on a global scale ?
The budgets will remain an integral part of any balance sheet, the amounts will decrease drastically in line with development potential in house with what ever projects were ceased and those that continue. This means pet projects with low degree of success will be shut down immediately, those with integral potential and possible mass market or niche potential will continue but be seriously scrutinized on a monthly basis. POET will garner much market share, and in doing so will cause this free up of previously budgeted capital to develop more related product, under license, under joint venture, and under the agreement of an exchange of human capital.
So Eileen where will this capital go then ?
Some will be retained as mentioned above, for projects ongoing, some will be reallocated to other budgets or line items, some will go to outside acquisitions and investment, remaining will be used for things like shareholder distributions etc.
So Eileen how does this effect the POET shareholder and the POET product(s) ?
That's the paradox, the irony, the explosive conundrum. Much of the money in R and D budgets will be used to buy active licenses and/or pay for joint ventures, POET related product development (sort of a multi level marketing for an individual company) and possibly even shares on the open market as a hedge and/or internal company investment fund. I liken it to a fruit company type of situation for cash generation potential. PTK will generate enormous wealth internally and that will be evident to many beforehand so therefore jockeying for stakes will most likely occur with freed up R and D capital. It won't be only funds, but also private monetary investors who will want a piece. My idea is how long before an Ellison, a Gates, even a Buffet will be involved ? Big money makes for make attention.
As with many mutual, sovereign, hedge and private investment funds, portfolio managers will clamor for the opportunity to turn over YTD and fiscal year returns in the double digits. Another large, and if not one of the main reasons why the NASDAQ is essential and asap in fact. Think B as in billions. They will......
So Eileen what does this do for the share price ?
I say this with much trepidation, as the arrows have been cast before at my opinion. I really don't think that many grasp the magnitude of whats going on here behind (and soon in front of) the scenes. So is this to convince those set at selling at $5 or $10.........not to ? Absolutely not ! sell when you feel the yen to do so. Maybe some or all, or even none. There will be NO lack of buyers .....I can say confidently. What my primary point here is to illustrate those of us in early (like now) have at our feet a golden opportunity to watch history being made and be at the epicenter of that event. In being at the epicenter, one will witness over the next weeks, months, and years, substantial change in a trillion dollar industry and those indirectly related as well. For example, with new power efficiencies, and room made available in user electronics, higher processing power will all culminate in an ever exploding App industry. What will our shares be worth in a month, a year, 5 years ? You consider all that is possible, then tell me.
Expect the unexpected...........those with foresight, this is your week.........