Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: 20 billion buyout

"What's your thought on a number [baba]? It's just a game, lace em up and bring it! One near certainty, none of us will be right. Would enjoy your 'undeluded' opinion."

Mack, I think very differently than most here; I suppose I'm far more pessimistic at heart than many here, and that's likely why.

Notwithstanding the many truly fine minds on this board, and all the very hard work they put in to share with all just how exciting this opportunity is, and no matter how convincing they sound (and they often make wonderful, cogent arguments), and, finally, no matter who all joins the company in one fashion or another, for me, all those factors cannot drown out the disquieting rumble of the monumental disconnect between our current C$285 million market cap and the multi-billions which are thrown about here like confetti at a political convention!

I do think this company could be worth multiple, multiple billions if the tech is everything we (i.e., the intelligencia on this board) say it is, and at that point, far and away, the biggest risk would be "steal" of the company. Unfortunately, I cannot quantify the risk between wherever POET is right now and where they need to be in order that the tech is proven to be everything we say it is (the "Big Ticket Risk").

I do get the sense that the tech is at least far enough along such that if POET can't improve it any further, it still may be worth at least the current market cap, and likely, even more. That's an awfully comfortable position, sitting with a lottery ticket, without significant downside.

Without knowing more of the Big Ticket Risk, I won't know whether to be happy or sad with a particular cash buyout number. News of completed milestones will surely lessen the Big Ticket Risk.

So, Mack, here's the bottom line, if without additional positive milestone or contract news, if we got an offer tomorrow, and it developed into a bidding war, and that war ended with a US$12 buyout price, I'd be pleased, even though I will feel that with a little more proof of POET's tech viability, we could have gone much higher. Sometimes, those last bits of proof are hard to come by, and passing the risk on can be a blessing which is not immediately apparent.

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