Full Article https://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/4115-lead-follow-catch-next-silicon-valley-wave.html

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..........Real change requires going after high-hanging fruit. Most firms don’t have a ladder that will reach over the wall – and can’t afford to build or buy one. We are beyond the scale of putting consumer electronics in every pair of hands on the planet. The thinking is we are now heading off after the really big problems: smart cities, global warming, clean energy, healthcare, education, those sorts of things. Devices, gateways, and infrastructure in the IoT are going to have to work together.

Apple and Google have also altered the supply chain, but each is finding the IoT stall wall more difficult than expected. In an environment where everything has to work together, Apple is highly parochial, and Google is the antithesis of privacy. Each will have a measure of success on the IoT, but their long term dominance is unlikely. One model that may work would be to spin off an IoT division; for example, Nest was founded by ex-Apple types, purchased by Google, and may ultimately be freed again.

There is also the thinking that the IoT will be fertile ground for startups. Money will be made, for sure, but staying power will require solving the bigger problems. Most startups will likely flash in, solve a technological problem, and cash out quickly. If a smaller company starts to make big progress on the socioeconomic front, they could cement an IoT leadership position.

Stealing a line from Kurt Sutter: “History doesn’t lie.” While the well-known names are out there, and ARM has a sizable head start, we are likely to see all-new Silicon Valley names appearing and growing to prominence on the IoT. The futures of Intel, IBM, BlackBerry, and Microsoft may well depend on how well their years of planning and massive restructuring pay off with IoT wins. Once the IoT leadership becomes clear as the solutions mature, this will set off a new cycle of creative destruction, where incumbents are forced to reevaluate and adapt – for the next wave.