I'm not so sure.
By your logic, they should have driven it to China back in late Oct., when the TA looked awful, but they didn't. Either support showed up or they got scared, but in either case, they didn't.
I agree news sooner would be better, but I will go out on a limb and state that the price will not reach the Oct. lows, in anticipation of what is coming, surely within the next 20 business days or so.