Some Thoughts on Tough Times
posted on
Nov 06, 2014 08:48PM
Hello, it has been very tough as of late, and in reference to some previous discussion on balls, I would have to say that the current SP sucks balls. I did not see this coming, not to this extent, not even close. It seems that is was a long time ago when I was patting myself on the back thinking what a great investor I was. There have not been any pats on the back lately. I am also 100% accountable for my own investments. I am still optimistic, but thinking my original timeline was unrealistic. I can wait, and as much as the current paper losses are depressing, the SP does not matter until I sell, at least this is what I keep telling myself. I do have a few thoughts for what it is worth.
1) If there was an information leak about something that was technically wrong (there has been no indication of this, in fact the opposite), and this was the result of the downward pressure, I would think we would see a trading volume of tens of millions of shares per day.
2) IMO, the manipulators are fully in control and have a lot of ammo at their disposal (some negatives or perceived negatives have needed to be made public, and potential positives are under NDA). I must say these manipulators are much better than I could have imagined. Consider that at some point it is likely they will want to manipulate this up and that could be swift. Perhaps this was a big factor in why the SP almost hit $3.
3) I think that the current $0.70 SP is ridiculous, even given no revenues etc. The SP should also reflect potential and future outlooks, which look to be significant, albeit with risk, but that is what investing is all about (most investments have some risk). A company with revenue that reports a stellar quarter, but has a bad outlook moving forward will typically have a SP crash, so what's ahead, not what did you just do, is usually most important. There is clearly a disconnect between the SP (which sucks) and the company POET (which looks to be rocking).
4) There have been discussions on whether or not the company should issue a NR "everything is on track, not sure why the pressure on the SP, etc.)". I will not get into that, various arguments either way. I will say this however. From Lucky Gals post (thanks for that by the way) paraphrased from the conversation with CC "They will not nor should not comment on price direction unless required to do so by regulators". To be blunt, I call BS. What about at the Empire Club event where PC stated something like watch the SP go from the bottom left to the top right. Is that not a comment on the SP?
5) This one to me says it all. When Ajit mentioned quite some time ago something like he is currently looking for any holes, I thought to myself, now there is a huge risk (thought it was unlikely, but it crossed my mind). What if he finds some holes, decides there is a problem, and there is an announcement that he left the company. That would have killed the SP. That did not happen and Ajit is still with POET, so that speaks volumes.
I suspect that many retail investors have now left (which is the name of the game, the rich get richer), but I am still here as are many of you.
Good luck everyone, we need a strong reversal, and soon!!
Quan