Good reasoning, Smoothsailing!

What you described is at least the impression people have about POET, though it is not quite correct. BAE has validated at least certain aspects of the POET technology, and Synopsys has also has given some credit to POET by entering into the PDK collaboration. However, the voices of Terry Ma, Vice President of Engineering for TCAD at Synopsys, and Dr. Pane Chao, Technical Director at BAE Systems' Microelectronics Center, have been more or less unheard in the investment community. A crucial reason might me the fact that Ma and Chao have been cited in POET Technologies' news releases only, not in news releases of their own companies. One of the posters here checked with Synopsys whether there is really a collaboration, which Synopsys confirmed. According to that poster, Synopsys also confirmed that they didn't announce the collaboration with POET Technologies on their website. Okay, we knew that already.

All in all your analysis is correct, Smoothsailing. We have news releases from POET Technologies (which people might consider dubious), we have statements from posters (which people might also consider dubious), and we have the SBIR money (which people might not understand or consider outdated). But we have nothing directly from companies who cooperated with POET Technologies in one or the other way.

I tend to attribute this to stealth mode, but you might disagree.

Anyway, currently it all boils down to how much you trust in what POET Technology is saying, what other posters here are saying, what you could find out yourself, and how all that fits together.

Personally, I am very happy I was able to attend this year's AGM and (even more important to me) the lab tour. I am happy I could meet POET guys and some of the folks hanging around on this board. This gave me more confidence in this investment than I ever had before, so it was definitely worth the effort and the expenses of an intercontinental flight.

On the other hand I can understand the overwhelming majority of (potential) investors who never made this experience, who never did their due diligence, and to whom all this looks like thin ice, especially after the recent insider selling. I think this explains the current share price level quite well, but I am also very confident that this will change on near term. (Whatever you might call "near". :-))