Schneider meither
posted on
Sep 29, 2014 10:39AM
I really would not get too upset about the Schneider commentary. It is clear from his background that he does not possess the knowledge base to comment on POET, how could he. I claim to know something about the technology and have read what I can on what is available. Graspng the significance is difficult even with a scientific background. Mr. Schneider cannot have a clue on its significance.
Here's what we know. PTK is producing a testable microprocesor, based on a patented method of production in a substrate (GaAsIn). While these substrates have been used before, (they are used regularly currently in mobile phones) the method developed by PTK allows the production of a variety of transistors, thyristors, laser control, memory etc. currently at 40nM gate length. Additionally they are producing software that can be used by both design and maufacturing teams, to instruct the microprocessor towards design goals that suit end product manufacturers. This testable microprocessor is to be available by early 2015, possibly before.
We know that previous testing of components, at higher gate lengths, support what is theoretically known: processing speed is very much higher in this microprocessor. It is important to understand that the speed of processing depends on many factors including, clock speed, densisty of transistors, the material of the transistors, heat losses, software function, logical circuit design etc. What we are told is that a 40nM processor should be as fast as the best Silicon processor available now. What Schneider doesn't know, is how POET compares with Silicon. He has no idea how costly and difficult it is to improve Silicon and make gate lengths smaller. He is unaware that small improvements in design, gate length and other features cost 10's of billions of dollars with fractional improvement. So Silicon is grinding towards its cost limitations. He seems not to have factored in that if PTK is offering the genuine article then smaller companies than INTEL, Samsung etc will see a reason for hope in PTK
Back at the PTK ranch, however, GaAsIn processing is at 40 nM and can be made smaller and clock speeds can be increased. We expect this to improve processing speeds by many factors over the next few years. Additionally all the light function and processor efficiency will be added. This can be done in exsting foundries with minimal engineering changes i.e. at low cost. Now while I agree there are uncertainties in all this and we cannot know the outcome with certainty and that there won't be an irreconcilable problem. However, if it is true and they can be made successfully, then it will disrupt the Silicon market.
The nay sayers, so far, are characterised by backgrounds in finance and not technology. I suspect they are really fast buck merchants who are hung up on the past record of Silicon (it has been phenomenal but is ending). Perhaps they can't appreciate what's happening, maybe they have money invested in the wrong thing who knows. So I wouldn't worry about Schneider's meither, he really doesn't know because nobody, save a few silent technical experts, knows. He's having a guess or is trying to influence your thoughts on POET. I simply have real confidence that there is something exceptional here and the nay sayers will be wrong in the fullness of time. It will be worth looking back in 6 months.
David