Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: IBM Memory

We can all agree that it's good to keep our heads up be aware of potential competition, but I don't think the VHS/Betamax war is a good comparison. Its been brought up before as a caveat but the similarities just arent there. VHS and Betamax were both emerging technologies vying for acceptance as the standard.

Sure, Beta was an arguably better technology, but it was limited by its tape length. Beta started with 1 hour tape lengths and VHS with 2 hour tape lengths. Although both standards extended their available tape lengths, Beta just never was able to gain ground on VHS. Even the better picture quality of Betamax was not something most consumers were able to determine.

Consider now Betamax(B) vs. VHS(V):

-B had better picture quality and sound(marginally) than V

-B had better quality hardware than V

-B was more expensive than V

-Both B and V were venturing into the consumer video tape market with new technology

-B only made by Sony until the late 80's, V freely licensed to all

If you want to bring the VHS/Betamax war to the debate, I think it brings more reasons why POET "will" succeed than why POET "might not" succeed.

-POET is not not a "marginal" improvement over current technology. In fact, as we all know, POET is a "game changing" technology with many orders of magnitude improvement in clock speed and optical capability.

-POET is cheaper to produce than current CMOS Si based on the monolithic manufacturing capability and, due to a higher function density, each application requires much fewer IC's.

-POET is a higher quality(more robust) architecture than current optical solutions which require a separate laser to be physically secured after being aligned with recievers and waveguides.

-POET is not the only tech on the horizon to address some of the needs of industry and markets but it is the only one that appears to be ready right now answer the call.

-POET does not need a huge investment of capital to be put into production by fabs arount the world. POET provides "Technology of the Future, Built by the Tools of Today" (Peter, you can use that phrase for a small sum of PTK shares. :) )

-Lastly, but probably most importantly, PC and the rest of POET management don't appear to be repeating the errors of technology past and restricting the use of POET.

The mention of multiple NDA's with potential PDA Partners speaks volumes about their intent. Dr. Taylor has spent decades perfecting POET to be in a position to be brought to market with the highest possibility of success. He is now on the BOD and it appears they are all in sync with his vision. I think the Doctor and the rest of management recognize that the highest probability of success lies in making POET available to everyone that is willing to pay to license it (and they will want to).

So, while we should all keep our heads well out of the sand, I don't think we need to fear a VHS/Betamax scenario. Although its true the best technology doesn't always win out (still waiting for the Laserdisc fear scenario), the facts just aren't there to support that fear.

Thanks to all that support the board,

goodnight.

Green

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