I include a table which I obtained from a link from our colleague Silent Running's post. It shows the distribution and value of all the semiconductor manufacturers in 2010 and 2011. You can draw your own conclusions but it is worth noting the top 5 only held 36.8% of the market. The middle ranks some, 20 companies, held 32.4%. The remainder (an unspecifed number of companies) held 30.7%. These figures are dated March 2012. This, by implication, suggest room for PTK

The revenue stated from all companies at that date is given as 311,960,000,000 i.e approaching 1/3 of a trillion US Dollars. Since then the market size for semiconductors has grown and it has been quoted that 2014 will see the market at approximately 500,000,000,000 or 1/2 trillion US Dollars.

It is projected that the semiconductor market will grow beyond this date; demand is unquestionably rising, with an abundance of projects in a large variety of industires including, mobile technology, communications, automobile, energy, military etc. I have to say these figures sound convincing and feel right, based on all the reading and information I have seen.

Today's NR comes with a number of unstated though implied conclusions. Clearly there operates non disclosure agreements which will hide vital facts from investors, and it must be said, in such sensitive matters, that it must be so. There is implied the existence of partners and the potential for others. Implied also is good progress with 100 nm technology which I take to mean that at this point POET/PET can compete with the best Silcon can achieve and exceed it for all the reasons that have been set out in previous posts. The stated facts are the progress of POET's Technological Design Kits which will be suitable for completion for manufacture by the 3Q 2014. The Taylor lecture may well be associated with the 100 nm announcement as it has been earmarked for the end of April 2014.

In thse circumstances and assuming the steps this excellent management have established are maintained (who now doubts it). Then it is reasonable to assume that the technology is increasingly likely to be distruptive. It is also likely that the company intends to arrange manufacture of the technology and a buy out, considering the distribtion of share ownership, can only occur with this management's agreement, they show no overwhelming desire for it, though I accept they should not; this may be the less likely of the options.

Now!, consider the revenue available in late 2014 in this market. What penetration of the market could occur. Can it be 1%, as many of the smaller companies achieve; could it be greater. On this basis I have underestimated an initial 0.1% penetration, achievable over a 12 month period; it may be much greater. It will grow rapidly and demonstrate these reveunues quarterly and PTK's revenue in 2015 could be 1/2 billion dollars. Given this both the penetration of a proven technology will further increase penetration. Then assume annual doubling over a 5 year period i.e. to 1.2% of revenue due to penetration of market at 5 years (assumed increase in semiconductor market over 5 years of 100 billion per annum) per annum) giving a revenue of 8 billion at 5 years. What value would I put on a company whose reveune is initially 1/2 billion with rapid growth predicted to 8 billion over 5 years including the potential to reintroduce Moore's law over the next 20 years, with cheaper, faster, monolithic and lower heat electronics. I'd say 10 -15 billion. If uptake is significantly higher then much larger.

Welcome to Pellegrino 1.5. Hold those shares, a storm cometh.

David