Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: 28 APRIL 2014

If POET became the defacto standard technology for mainstream processor markets... 10B is a layup valuation.

We have seen what INTEL has done their chips. Mildly changing them from generation to generation, milking profit out of the market over time. There is a lot of $ to be made over the coming years.....

This is very simplistic, back of a napkin take, but lets say for second POET was the new architecture INTEL chosen to use for their chips. Let's say POET licensed their technology to them for 5% royalty on top line revenues on everything INTEL sold (overly simplistic, but work with me). INTEL revenues were 53.3B in 2012. That is 2.5B of PROFIT for that year. Then there is the next year and so on.

What type of multiple would one put on a fabless licensing company that had 99%+ profit margins, minimal costs and 2.5 B of pure profit....well …QUALCOMM get 20X right now but already very large and mature. Iwould imagine due the pure licensee framework, and good pipeline or future iterations of the product....POET would get a higher vaulaiton out of the gate in "growth mode". 50 PE or higher, but lets use 20 PE to be level headed....

20 x 2.5B = 50B

Would POET apply to 100% of every piece of INTEL revenue, maybe not. But could POET license to other companies as well? Sure. Does POET apply to markets that Intel is not in? Sure.......therefore there is upside on the 50B in a big way. One only needs to look at the market cap of QUALCOMM itself as an example - 135B.

Is this analysis perfect- not in the least…. but a very rough taste to where this can go....we are talking may tens of billions of dollars and over time into the Quallcomm range (100B +).

I am not sure how P 2.0 will discount this future value and probability of this happening back to POET value today......we will see... it should be good.

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