Having once been pulled up by Dash for being too enthusiastic about POET being in the end game, I think it is an interesting point to debate whether 2014 is the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning, to misquote Churchill.
My gut feeling has been that the SP will only move forward when the prospect of real cash flowing into POET’s coffers arrives. A potenmtial buy out might do this or licence fees for chips leaving fabs into markets. Post Jan 6 announcement I feel that the possibility of the former has receded, which makes me think that it will be the latter and logically some time in late in 2014 before things begin to move.
However, one pipe dream is the thought that although the 100 nm target has not been reached its true that POET has demonstrated that it can down get to 200 nm, a significant achievement.
(Pipe Dreaming begins)
If I were the potential PDA who had set the 100nm target, I might be thinking to myself right now, that perhaps POET has done enough to demonstrate its viability, given that if they had had the right kit in their lab, they would have certainly achieved the target. Do I really need to wait a couple of months for then to sharpen their tools when I could prove the product in my own facility?. – Mmmmm - we could get product rolling off the assembly lines this summer by being a bit more flexible – it would certainly steal a march on our rivals and be great for our bottom line – Mmmm – I quite like this!
(Pipe dreaming ends)