Osisko - Virginia Gold Royalties

gold royalty company - 5% NSR on Malartic.

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Message: TDW Report on Osisko

TDW Report on Osisko

posted on Feb 26, 2009 08:28AM

TD Waterhouse released a report on Osisko this morning. They are downgrading OSK from "speculative buy" to "hold" based on "relative valuation and short-term outlook".

Here is an excerpt from the report:

"While Osisko has materially reduced the level of financing risk that attends to
Canadian Malartic project development, we estimate that it needs to raise a
further $300 million to fund remaining pre-production capital and corporate
costs and to ensure a healthy working capital buffer. We model it doing so
through debt in 2010; however, we note that the full exercise of the warrants
issued as part of this financing would generate proceeds of $242 million.

Offsetting the reduction in financing risk, the company is in our view a less
likely takeover candidate in the short term. We would argue that the majors,
which in our coverage universe trade at multiples ranging from 1.8x to 2.2x
NAV5%, would have preferred to finance the construction of the Canadian
Malartic project at their multiples rather than have Osisko do so at 0.76x
NAV5% at the time of financing. We therefore think that if an offer were
seriously being considered, it would have been made already.

Without a takeover offer, we find it difficult to believe that Osisko will
outperform in the short term. On our numbers the company is trading at a
premium to its closest comparable, Detour Gold (DGC-T), and with the South
Barnat resource already in our model, we don’t see any major catalysts
forthcoming. Given the state of the market, we don’t see an attractive
valuation as sufficiently compelling to recommend the stock on its own. We
therefore lower our recommendation to HOLD from Speculative Buy. Our
target price of $6.00/share remains unchanged."

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