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Message: OPC

OPC

posted on Apr 08, 2009 05:31AM

This is a purported BMO Capital Markets report on OPC that was posted on Google:

We are maintaining our Market Perform (Speculative) rating for OPTI
Canada and re-
introducing a target price of $3 for the shares. Our net asset value
assessment for OPTI Canada
implies that the shares could be worth roughly $10/share based on
current NYMEX forward
strip crude oil prices (including roughly $8 for Phase 1 alone) and
$13.11 based on our
commodity price forecast.

We believe the shares could eventually reflect these valuations if the
company is able to
demonstrate the viability of its oil sands leases and upgrading
technology. However, the shares
could remain volatile in the near term as the market weighs perceived
financial and operational
risk against a potential takeover offer. Our $3 target price implies a
63% discount to our Phase
1 net asset value estimate under the strip pricing scenario. We
believe the value of future phases
of development represents additional upside potential.

OPTI Canada.s share price has surged 86% since the end of March,
driven by the combination
of takeover speculation and expectations of improved operational
performance at Long Lake.
The recently announced merger between Petro-Canada and Suncor has
sparked newfound
interest in the oil sands industry, with keen eyes searching
for .who.s next.. Several large
industry players including Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. and Royal
Dutch Shell have also
recently indicated their interest in potential oil sands
acquisitions.

While the Long Lake project has faced face several above-ground issues
that have limited
upstream bitumen production capability, Nexen (operator of the Long
Lake oil sands project) is
expected to complete necessary modifications to its water treatment
facilities in April, which
should allow for increased steam generation and bitumen production
levels in the near term. In
our view, demonstrating the viability of bitumen production from Long
Lake is a key step in
unlocking the value hidden in the OPTI story. As such, remedies to the
current production
constraints could result in improved production performance and aid in
share price appreciation.

Getting Things Steaming

The Long Lake project has faced several above-ground issues that have
limited the availability
of steam and constrained upstream bitumen production. In particular,
steam generation
continues to be constrained by bottlenecks at the project.s water
treatment facilities, thus
limiting the amount of water available for steaming the reservoir and
aiding bitumen
production. The operator of the project, Nexen, is currently
addressing two issues at the water
treatment facilities, which should remove the production bottleneck
and allow for a more
normal ramp-up in bitumen volumes in the very near future.

First, the water treatment facility.s water lime softeners were
designed for steady state
operation, where 90% of the water it receives is recycled from
reservoir and hence already
warmed. The problem is that in the early stage of bitumen ramp-up, the
proportion of water
volumes sourced from .fresh. cold water production wells is very high
relative to the heated
water recycled from the reservoir, thus constraining the ability to
heat water for treatment in
preparation for steaming. To address this issue, the Long Lake
partners are in the process of
installing additional water heating capacity at the front-end of the
water treatment process to

supplement the heat returns from the reservoir. Nexen is also making
minor modifications to its
water filtration system, which has been causing additional challenges
in the output of treated
water available for steaming.

Bitumen production from Long Lake is currently averaging roughly
15,000 b/d from 32 of 81
well pairs. However, the water treatment modifications are slated for
completion by the end of
April, which should be followed by a more rapid ramp-up in steam
production and bitumen
volumes. The Long Lake partners expect all of the SAGD well pairs to
be on production by
year-end 2009, with full rates of 72,000 b/d being achieved in 2010.

The Upgrader Is Waiting

The Long Lake partners successfully started the Phase 1 upgrader in
January with first
production of synthetic premium sweet crude oil (PSC). The upgrader
has produced at rates up
to 20,000 b/d of on-spec PSC, including 10.12,000 b/d from upgraded
bitumen and the
remainder from processed diluent. The upgrader is expected to ramp-up
to full design rates of
58,500 b/d within 12.18 months. The partners have access to additional
third-party bitumen
above that currently being produced onsite, in order to support the
ongoing ramp-up of the
Long Lake upgrader.

Financial Outlook

Our financial estimates are unchanged. We expect operating cash flow
of -$0.62/share in 2009
and $0.26 in 2010. Our estimates assume roughly 8,700 b/d of product
sales in 2009,
increasing to 18,720 b/d in 2010.

OPTI holds crude oil put options providing a floor price of US$80/bbl
on 6,000 b/d of
production in 2009 (roughly 68% of our forecast production for the
year). As a result, the
company.s near-term financial risks relate more to actual production
volumes than price.

Through its recent sale of a 15% interest in Long Lake to Nexen, OPTI
acquired needed capital
to repay its near-term debt obligations and fund its ongoing capital
expenditure program
through the ramp-up of Phase 1. Following the transaction closing,
OPTI currently has roughly
$540 million in available liquidity, including $280 million in cash on
its balance sheet and $260
million in unused credit lines. In addition, the company has prefunded
$85 million of its
expected $114 million capital expenditure program for 2009.

Based on our current production forecast, we believe this is
sufficient capital to fund the
company.s operations through the ramp-up to commercial production
levels in 2009. Upon
completion of Phase 1, Long Lake is designed to produce roughly 60,000
b/d of high-quality
synthetic crude oil at substantially lower operating costs than most
peers. As a result, the
completion of Phase 1 should allow OPTI to generate significant cash
flow to fund its ongoing
oil sands developments.

Table 1: OPTI Canada Financial and Operating Summary

CAGR
200720082009e2010e2011e2012e2013e200...
EPS (diluted continuing)(0.05) (0.06) (0.62) 0.26 0.77 0.95 0.98
nmCFPS (diluted)(0.06) (0.92) (0.60) 0.83 1.54 1.84 2.01 nmEBITDA
(diluted)(0.11) (1.71) 0.27 1.70 2.34 2.60 2.80 nm
NAV/share8.91 7.87 13.11 15.74 17.59 18.18
17.44 17%
Bitumen Production (b/d)- 3,900 3,369 5,250 5,040 5,040 3,780
nmSynthetic Oil Sands (b/d)- - 5,351 13,470 17,242 17,242 18,320
nmROCE (%)0%-7%0%5%8%8%8%nmLT Liabilities (%)45%63%60%58%53%50%52%-4%
D/CF-151.2x-287.6x-20.9x11.8x5.8x4.8...
Commodity Price Assumptions:
WTI (US$/bbl)72.32 99.63 47.50 65.00 75.00 85.00 90.00 -2%
NYMEX Gas (US$/Mcf)7.118.904.756.007.007.507.5...
Exchange Rate0.9350.9430.8000.8000.8500.9000....

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company reports

Valuation

We are maintaining our Market Perform (Speculative) rating for OPTI
Canada, and re-
introducing a target price of $3 for the shares. Our net asset value
assessment for OPTI Canada
implies that the shares could be worth roughly $10/share based on
current NYMEX forward
strip crude oil prices (including roughly $8 for Phase 1 alone), and
$13.11 based on our
commodity price forecast.

We believe the shares could eventually reflect these valuations if the
company is able to
demonstrate the viability of its oil sands leases and upgrading
technology; however, the shares
could remain volatile in the near term as the market weighs perceived
financial and operational
risk against a potential takeover offer. Our $3 target price implies a
63% discount to our Phase
1 net asset value estimate under the strip pricing scenario . the
value of future phases of
development represents additional upside potential.

While the project has faced several above-ground issues that have
limited upstream bitumen
production capability, Nexen is expected to complete necessary
modifications to its water
treatment facilities in April, which should allow for increased steam
generation and bitumen
production levels in the near term.

In our view, demonstrating the viability of bitumen production from
Long Lake is a key step in
unlocking the value hidden in the OPTI story. As such, remedies to the
current production
constraints could result in improved production performance and aid in
share price appreciation.

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company reports

Note: Pricing Scenarios are as follows:

Chart 1: 2009 Net Asset Value Oil Price Sensitivity

$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$40 Oil
$50 Oil
$60 Oil
$70 Oil
$80 Oil
Strip
BMO Forecast
WTI (US$/bbl)
Phase 1Future DevelopmentShare Price
Share Price ($/share)

$40 Oil Case . US$40/bbl WTI Oil, US$4/mcf HH gas, FX rate US$0.75;
$50 Oil Case . US$50/bbl WTI Oil, US$5/mcf HH gas, FX rate US$0.80;
$60 Oil Case . US$60/bbl WTI Oil, US$6/mcf HH gas, FX rate US$0.85;
$70 Oil Case . US$70/bbl WTI Oil, US$7/mcf HH gas, FX rate US$0.90;
$80 Oil Case . US$80/bbl WTI Oil, US$8/mcf HH gas, FX rate US$0.95;
Strip prices as of April 6, 2009.

Table 2 provides a comparison of implied oil sands values on
an .apples-to-apples. basis across
a variety of development scenarios by backing out the implied values
of non-oil sands assets
and adjusting for the cost of development of the various oil sands
projects. The two largest
.pure-play. oil sands operators (Canadian Oil Sands and Suncor) are
trading at discounts of
29% and 37% to the estimated 2009 net asset value, respectively, under
BMO commodity price
assumptions, and discounts of 17% and 29%, respectively, based on
current NYMEX strip
prices. By comparison, OPTI is trading at an 86% discount to our net
asset value estimate and
an 82% discount based on the NYMEX strip. Moreover, OPTI.s shares are
trading at a 77%
discount to our strip-NAV estimate for Long Lake Phase 1 alone,
despite the imminent start-up
of the project, which implies no value for future development
potential.

Although we expect the Long Lake project could encounter additional
operational challenges in
bitumen production and upgrading operations through the ramp-up phase,
we believe OPTI.s
valuation discount should narrow considerably as the company
demonstrates successful ramp-
up of production from Long Lake Phase 1.

We believe the shares should appreciate in value as the company
demonstrates the commercial
production capability of its oil sands leases and upgrading
technology, and credit market
concerns ease. Our $3 target price implies a 63% discount to our Phase
1 net asset value
estimate under the strip pricing scenario. We believe the value of
future phases of development
represents free upside potential.

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