You have factored your numbers based on a sunny day economy. With global economies and finances the way they are I suspect you need to factor in a little more of a rainy day economy for realistic numbers. You account for the present mindset on the type of premiums that get offered these days but I suspect these will play more of a part to the down side than most anticipate, particularly when shareholders are more interested in faster returns for fewer dollars. A thirsty man will take one drink now rather than wait for two tomorrow.