All signs point to a spring election in Ontario

Christmas is coming. Elections are in the offing.

It is the season of good cheer. It is the season of hard truths.

It is the best of times. It is the worst of times.

It has been two years since Ontario's voters deprived the Liberals of another majority government, forcing them to team up with the opposition New Democrats. Now, time's up for the tag team.

We have had two budgets in the minority legislature under two different premiers. With goodwill, the Liberals and NDP could surely find enough common ground to pass a third budget reflecting their shared progressive impulses.

But goodwill and political will are not the same thing. By spring, the two parties will likely part company.

For the past two years, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath has wielded the balance of power. Now, she aims to win power in her own right — no longer propping up the Liberals but overpowering them.

Speaking to union supporters last week, Horwath signalled her ambitions: "I've made it clear that I'm seeking the job of premier."

No surprise. The NDP leader consistently enjoys the highest personal approval ratings among the three major party leaders. Some surveys show a statistical tie among the rival parties (allowing for margin of error). Internal Liberal polling shows the NDP dominating southwestern Ontario and performing strongly in the north and east. The Tories, too, are nervous about the NDP surge, frequently badmouthing them in the legislature.

If Horwath waits much longer, her party may peak. Ontario's NDP soared when the late Jack Layton led the federal party, and it got a bounce from the succession race, but the Layton halo is fading.

Now, Premier Kathleen Wynne is getting a lift from federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, whose honeymoon endures. Hence Horwath's impatience.

As for Tory Leader Tim Hudak, who has been spoiling for a fight since losing the last provincial vote, a bad economy presents a better opportunity to make gains.

Against that backdrop, the Liberals are resigned to a spring budget defeat. In caucus and cabinet, the consensus is that they are governing on borrowed time (and money).

All the clues are present: Pre-election advertising is gaining momentum, with the Liberals buying airtime to show off slick footage of Wynne on her daily jog.

On Monday, the minority government went through the motions of presenting its perennial long-term energy plan (with its remarkably short shelf life — the last two iterations have lasted but three years, and were also rolled out in precampaign mode). Once again, the Liberals will put their best spin on spiralling electricity costs, but damage control is a hard sell.

In two weeks, the government will take delivery of yet another report on how to bankroll a blueprint for rapid transit (the second in seven months). Despite Wynne's desire to move forward on transportation, it is a political non-starter. Boxed in by the campaign calendar, she won't win an election by asking people to pay more money. Expect her to pass the buck, as we remain gridlocked on all fronts.

Early next year, the Liberals will cobble together their pre-election budget, but the conversations will be strained. No longer will the government share authorship by acquiescing to NDP demands.

The Liberals will seek to retain sole ownership this time.

If the budget is predestined to go down to pre-election defeat in a non-confidence motion, better to campaign on a distinctively Liberal document than a hodgepodge of uncertain parentage.

As winter turns to spring, Ontario's lingering economic gloom will provide political fodder for the opposition. But the bad news could be a double-edged sword, as the question of who best to steer the economy redounds on Hudak and Horwath.

In tough times, voters may yet again flee the NDP as they recall the party's last term in power under Bob Rae.

In rough times, voters may also be wary of Hudak's anti-union tactics, as they remember the excesses of the Mike Harris era.

In bleak times, voters will hold Wynne to account for Dalton McGuinty's last decade in power, when money was wasted and opportunities lost.

It is a truism that opposition parties do not so much win elections as that governments defeat themselves. But the Liberals hope to turn that truism on its head — if the opposition can be weighed down by its own baggage. After all, faith-based funding foiled the Tories in 2007; Hudak's unpopularity hobbled the PCs in 2011; and the NDP's winning formula is compassion, not economics.

As Christmas cheer turns to a winter of discontent, Liberals are pining for a political resurrection come Easter. It's not yet a plan or a platform, merely a hope and a prayer.

Martin Regg Cohn is a news services columnist who writes on provincial affairs.

Martin Regg Cohn writes on provincial affairs.