While believing that buyout possibility not only exists but likely I do not think it will happen this year.
Too many things need to fall in place for a buyout to occur.
Foremost, I do not think anyone is serious about buying us out with things existing as at this moment. Most buyers are interested in getting the ore/metal to market as soon as possible. With all our stumbling blocks there is a disincentive to buy.
Baosteel is mainly in to secure a source of supply and that means with anyone who ends up taking this company to producer stage.
Funds on the other hand are all for profits on investment. They know that we have a great resource and are willing to wait for the cows to come home. It is also in their interest to drive the sp down and shake out weak/unconvinced investors at the lowest price possible so that they aquire the largest portion of the pie possible.
Will Baosteel use their option? Nah, non event because the sp is too low. They are better off aquiring stealthly at market price if they feel the need to control a larger portion. However at this time I do not see a need for them to want more. Where Baosteel may take part further is in supplying some of the financing to facilitate production. That financing would likely be through repayment in ore and metal.
We all now know that not much can/will happen without the transportation access being settled. The Ontario government will not be determined by spring, election or not. Then they need to make the announcemnet. These occur on government time, Sic. Then after that there is the financing of the transportation.
Ditto with our native neighbouts. They are an explosive entity that can blow up in our face for reasons real or made up.
That is why I do not think a buyout will happen this year, mainly because all of these issues are not likely to be settled before year's end. But there is always the possibility ( such as I am doing) that a buyer may want to grab on the cheap and wait.
So never say never.