Fossil,
This is no new math. Just tried it out for size. As you may recall, KWG had two valuation reports before the updated resources, CCC, etc and the value was up to and over $0.30/s. 2 NOT for 1 KWG = about $0.70/s would give value of KWG of about $470M which is quite reasonable for a company that sits on a nice holding: 30% BD, transportation corridor which could accommodate both road and RR. If you think it's is too rich, then try 1 NOT for 1 KWG = $0.35/s (or $235M for the entire company). The question is :would this be acceptable to KWG shareholders?
More importantly, what price CLF would be willing pay for KWG (and CCC) to get the the rest of BD and the transportation corridor with the RR in the end?, noting that it already has about 17% of KWG. So the cost of another 83% 0.83 x $470 = $390) would probably not too painful to swallow. Also, with KWG or CCC as a Canadian subsidiary, it can get millions of dollars of subsidies from the prov ($?, perhaps the Premier would throw in the N-S road?) and the fed (PPP, say about $500M). This is in addition to possible contributions from other RoF players, and long-term transportation savings plus extra income from the RR. No fancy math used here.
In this scenario, NOT gets in there to stir up the pot, and use its "alliance" with KWG as a bait to trigger some reaction from CLF, just like in the case of FWR TO bu CLF. NOT lost FWR, but it got a good pile of loose change.
There are other scenarios of course, but I would leave these to other posters' speculations.
As a shareholder of KWG, at what price would you be willing to part with your shares? Name your price and let us know the rationale.
goldhunter