Re: making predictions
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 13, 2011 02:17AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Good thoughts K, Manitoba Hydro has had previous plans to export to Ontario. It did cost Ontario many millions to cancel the transmission deal that would have seen the construction of the Conawapa Generating Station in northern Manitoba but more importantly the cost of the amount of time to ever do it again. A prospective generating station takes many years to get through the environmental process. Ontario decided to cancel the contract in 1992 and it would have been in service several years ago. It will take much longer to obtain approvals in this day and age.
Under the corporations current plans, the earliest in service date for Conawapa will be 2022. However, that was in 2009 when I retired from Manitoba Hydro, so, perhaps earlier. But, I doubt that very much. As far as having excess power from the Kelsey Generating Station, that could happen. Like you said, it was built to supply INCO in Thompson. If VALE (INCO) shuts down, Manitoba Hydro may have other options rather than shipping to Ontario. The Public Utilities Board in Manitoba sets the rates. The price of electricity to consumers in Manitoba is normally the lowest in North America. So, Manitoba Hydro has many incentives for provincial customers to conserve energy because the exports contracts to the U.S.A. are huge and those rates are negotiated by MB Hydro and not the Public Utilities Board. Why go south? That is because the east/west transmission corridors are incapable of transmitting high voltage power, or at least a lot of it. Manitoba Hydro does supply some power to North West Ontario but the local population there still pays the rate set by Ontario which is much higher than the charged rate from Manitoba Hydro.
Manitoba Hydro produces AC power at the dams in northern Manitoba. It is sent to a nearby converter station and converted to DC power, because it is more economical to transmit that way. Manitoba Hydro is recognized world wide for developing this technology and send people all over the world to assist in other countries implementing this strategy. Two high voltage, DC transmission lines, running from northern Manitoba to a converter station in Rosser, near Winnipeg, transport the power to the south. Both are in very close proximity to each other and are on the west side of Lake Winnipeg.
There are currently plans for a third high voltage transmission line from the north which is seeing opposition at the government level. The NDP government has stimied Manitoba Hydro's plans to put the third line down the east side of Lake Winnipeg because of the Boreal Forest. There are many First Nation Communities wanting the transmission corridor because of job opportunities and access to the "outside world" either by winter road down the corridor or by a new road system linking these communities to southern Manitoba. And, it makes a lot of sense from a security position, whether it be natural disaster such as a tornado or from the view of a terrorist attack.
However, this is being considered as a World Heritage Site so shipment to Ontario via a less cost perspective rate is seriously in question. It has been estimated that the route down the west side of Lake Winnipeg may cost an extra $1 billion rather than going through the east side. So, the Conservative opposition argue against costs. I have no comment on which is a better alternative because both have strong arguments. I am only trying to say that power from Manitoba may not be an alternative for the ambitious timelines set for the Ring of Fire.
As for waiting a bit on our share price, I only have to listen to Babjak's posts to ease my angst. And, also to Khareema because it won't be the first time that this rookie has made some serious coin (for me) by listening to him.
Good luck to all, Brent