Strike shows fragility of S Africa’s coalition

The African National Congress governs in partnership with the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the Communist party, all key participants in the downfall of apartheid. The ANC under Mr Zuma’s leadership is the most powerful member of this “tripartite alliance”, but all partners are supposed to have a say in policy.

Under Mr Mbeki, both Cosatu and the communists complained of being marginalised. Their decision to help topple Mr Mbeki in 2008 and back Mr Zuma’s bid for the presidency was “sold to members as something that would make a big difference, and would make sure the leftwing agenda was taken much more seriously”, says Steven Friedman of the Centre for the Study of Democracy.

Instead, the continuity of economic policy and the current strike suggest these hopes have been dashed. The Communist party has ruefully said that relations between the government and public sector workers had been reduced “to an employer-employee relationship”. The strike action began after the state refused union demands for an 8.6 per cent pay rise.

But the communists have avoided an open break with Mr Zuma. The party has been pragmatic enough to move away from its Marxist roots: both Blade Nzimande, the general secretary, and Jeremy Cronin, his deputy, serve as government ministers.

“I don’t think there were huge expectations about what could happen – the space is not necessarily huge for some dramatic leap leftwards,” says Mr Cronin. “What one hopes for and what’s immediately possible are not necessarily the same thing.”

Cosatu, however, has shown less restraint, becoming the most outspoken member of the tripartite alliance. The trade union federation, with more than two million members, has urged the government to help manufacturing by weakening the rand and pursuing an “alternative growth path” centred on job creation. Instead, Mr Zuma has continued the orthodox policy of his predecessor, focused on controlling inflation and minimising budget deficits.

The tension between Cosatu and Mr Zuma goes beyond policy disagreements. Zwelinzima Vavi, the Cosatu general secretary, was threatened with disciplinary action by the ANC in June after he publicly denounced alleged self-enrichment by cabinet ministers.

The tough response came from a belief that such words should be uttered in private, says Brian Sokutu, an ANC spokesman. Mr Zuma has warned union leaders against sounding like opposition politicians.

But Mr Vavi raised the rhetorical stakes on Thursday, declaring that South Africa was “heading rapidly in the direction of a full-blown predator state, in which a powerful, corrupt and demagogic elite of political hyenas increasingly controls the state as a vehicle for accumulation”. The tripartite alliance had entered “paralysis”, he added.

Cosatu’s leaders “now have to deal with the reality that the new ANC leadership, which they helped to elect, is in a sense as unsympathetic as the old one was,” says Prof Friedman.

Despite the strains, however, the tripartite alliance is unlikely to dissolve. All of its members still have a powerful interest in holding together. The ANC needs the organisational strength of Cosatu and the Communists for its election campaigns. Meanwhile, the latter two groups enjoy more political influence inside the tent than they would outside the alliance.

“Predictions of the imminent collapse of the alliance are as old as the alliance itself,” says Aubrey Matshiqi of the Centre for Policy Studies.

Instead, the recent tensions showed the fragility of the coalition that brought Mr Zuma to power. “It wasn’t a coalition based on principle or common ideology, it was based only on removing Mbeki as president,” says Mr Matshiqi. “Now that’s been achieved, the coalition is fracturing.”

Miners now want to join the strike.S Africa earns 6% of its nat.income in the mining sector.

Inca.