HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

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Message: Thinking aloud etc....

Thinking aloud etc....

posted on Dec 11, 2009 12:17AM

So...still trying to digest what has happened today.

-Noront attempts to unleash hell with 4 PR's in about 4 hrs. Doesn't seem to work if their intention is to raise SP.

-FWR announces the increased offer from Cliffs at roughly the same time.

-I think many FWR holders see the tax deferred value in NOT and tender shares. No idea what percent but probably min 5% ( my guess is 35%, and yes I saw the volume today)

-Many also either like Cliffs deal or choose to abstain and do nothing - their net value goes up 10 cents today.

-How many people just sold their shares for cash on the market today? Why wait until Jan 15 unless you believe this fight will go on. Who buys them? NOT supporters or Cliff supporters or neutral parties? We don't really know - well, I don't know.

So best case for Cliffs? There is no legal issues and they get enough votes to take over FWR at the price of $1/share - NOT ends up with a whack of Cliffs shares which they must deal with.

Best case for NOT? They get 51% of FWR and control the chromite and the demand for FWR diminishes and they can continue on MnA's and drilling with minimal dilution.

Worst case for Cliffs is above? They pay over 200% premium for shares in a company they cannot control and nobody wants because Cliffs is to big to swallow up. NOT mines their own chromite for 15 years+.

Worst case for NOT. Cliffs gets 67% of FWR (or support), and NOT has x% of FWR shares it can either tender to Cliffs or hang on to. NOT is diluted by that x% for cash.

All 3 companies involved will get a big legal bill come February.

I don't know - worst case for NOT they have Cliffs as a neighbour. Confuscious say that a senior miner as a next door neighbour is better than Freewest. It certainly legitimizes the area and NOT can serve as either a seriously sweet entry point into the ROF or serve as an obvious next target for Cliffs.

Probably the real sour pill we may have to swallow if Cliffs comes out ahead here (I'm not at all convinced they will - especially after getting a FWR phone call again tonight) is that the ultimate End Game has been marginalized. I think perhaps our value may effectively be improved with Cliffs in the ROF in the short and mid-term - but our long-term high exit point may take the hit.

I believe in the land, the team and the timing of this stock but as with anything, we will need to roll with the punches and adapt our strategies accordingly. I'm looking forward to finding the results of Noronts offer, albeit it could hold the same curiosity as a car wreck at the side of the road but I think there will be positive no matter what the result.

Just some free flow thinking, not factual...perhaps might spur further discussion.

Brattymack

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