"Cliffs will have a nice load of Noront shares if Noront goes on to win. I am sure they will unless Cliffs surprises with an improved bid. From the posts I've been reading, to satisfy most the bid is not coming. Cliffs might even get more shares tendered to them, but most are going to Noront. So I expect both to control up to 70% or 80 %."

How does CLF wind up with NOT shares? With the competing offers today, FWR shareholders can 1)tender their shares to NOT by Dec 11 or 2) vote their shares at a special meeting in Jan for or against the CLF proposal. In 1) FWR shareholders will become NOT shareholders as soon as NOT takes up and pays, probably within 3 days after Dec11; in 2) FWR shareholders will become CLF shareholders if a) CLF has a 2/3 vote at the meeting in favour of their proposal and b) the FWR shareholder exchanges his shares for CLF shares. The only unlikely way CLF becomes a NOT shareholder is 1).