HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

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Message: Misfit's musing on the Noront - Freewest festivities

Misfit's musing on the Noront - Freewest festivities

posted on Oct 27, 2009 06:27PM

Hi All,

Long time no talk... I took a hiatus from all boards for a few months as I started a new job and have little time to muse about the goings on in the markets and the world of commodities. That and I am managing a much larger pension portfolio (the benefit of leaving one job with a LIRA in hand) so I have had more flexibility in trading large volumes for smaller gains (as opposed to being all in with one stock and hoping).

I still have my wife's account all in with Noront as she loves the company and its story (more than I do actually) as we have been involved as shareholders since November 2006.

I have also owned FreeWest off an on since December 2006 as that was another ShareWizard pick from way back when. In those days, Noront had Windfall and then JV'd 50-50 with Freewest and Murgor for their share of land that was North of Noront's large strike. Freewest had it easy as they provided the land that was used as the entrance to the ramp down to the bonanza area and Noront paid the bills to mine an off-shoot to an area on the original FWR/MUG claim. I never did find out how those holes assayed in the end. Just heard that they were not economic at $1050 an ounce gold after spending 15M on a ramp so I guess it must be true ;) (Which is why I currently hold a large amount of EAG. I cannot let go of the dream ... )

Anyway, I was surprised by Noront's bid for FreeWest as I thought at the time that it was too generous. Looking at the FreeWest NR today made me chuckle. Though I know many a loyal FWR fan (of which I am one) will disagree, the four for one bid for Noront was more than generous in my opinion. The reasons for my opinion are as follows:

- At the time the friendly merger proposal (let's call it for what it is) was announced on October 5, Noront's SP was trading at a recent lower point in the $1.60s compared to Freewest's SP which had spent most of the year up to that point trading between .20 and .30 cents. I have followed the FWR share price as closely as Noront's throughout the years as it provided some nice 40% returns on market weakness (.22 to .30).

With Noront's offer, the FWR's share price magically jumped (for no reason other than Noront wanted them to merge) to .40 cents and then to .50 cents as Noront climbed back to $2. At that point a rise or fall in Noront seemed to have an effect on FWR's price.

Now let's be realistic here. What would the SP of FWR be today IF Noront had not announced their intention to offer a 4 for 1 exchance of shares? .22 cents? .25 cents? Or .30 cents? Take your pick. But it would definitely not be the .50 cents it has been trading at lately.

At the time of the announcement I thought Noront was nuts for offering one share of a company with a lot going for them (nickel, copper, PGMs, chrome, JVs galore, and a heck of a lot of land at the ROF) for a company with chromite and some other prospects outside the ROF. If FWR on a good day was trading at .30 cents, then the Noront offer represented a NOT share purchase opportunity of $1.20. The fact that they were offering a 4 for 1 with the shareprice at $1.60 represented a nice premium given that FWR shareholders would still benefit from now holding the combined assets of both companies with their new share.

- The FWR NR shows this as a WIN-LOSE. That is, Noront wants to win at the expense of Freewest. But for a FWR shareholder who trades in their .30 cent shares for a 1/4 Noront share, they end up owning a piece of a company that holds both sets of assets. The former FWR assets and the current NOT assets. Not such as bad deal given it was like buying a share of NOT for $1.20.

- I also wondered what the NOT institutional holders thought of this deal. You know the ones we learned to love and hate. The ones that bought $4 and $5 PP shares and then hoodwinked some .80 cent PP shares after the coup and then more recently bought some more at $2.80. With the acquisition of FWR, their recent $2.80 purchase is the equivalent to a .70 cent FWR share, a price we have yet to historically see with FreeWest.

Compare that to what Freewest issued their private placements for this year. .30 cents in April for $500,000 and .35 cents in June to Cliffs (one buyer) for over $5 million.

So the current NOT insiders not only have to pay a premium for Freewest, but they also buy up the dilution that Freewest incurred this year for the equivalent of .70 cents as their $2.80 share in Noront is diluted by 20% after the proposed share trade.

MY POINT IS THIS: Today's FWR news release made it sound like Noront was robbing FWR. If all facts were known today, this could be true. But the point is that all facts are not known, the drills have not been fully spent, and all that exists at this point in terms of Freewest is potential. The market valued this potential the last few years between .20 and .30 cents. They valued Noront's potential between .60 cents and $7+ dollars at times. Who is robbing who?

- As you can imagine by this point, I could care less if Noront is able to takeover Freewest. I believe the intention of the friendly takeover was to begin a consolidation of land in the area and to streamline operations in a more strategic way. If this does not happen (which it looks to be the case as FreeWest is not willing to give up the poison pill which was one of Noront's requirements), then Noront will continue to execute its strategy as planned. And yes Mac, they have one. In the meantime I am sure that Sheldon can find a way to overturn the board at FWR in a nice friendly manner.

There have been times in the past three weeks where I was tempted to buy a share or two of FreeWest. But each time the thought came to me that if the takeover deal tanked, then FWRs share price could fall back to .30 cents (or worse). I was not willing to take the risk of losing between 25% to 50% of my money when Noront would more than likely stay the same if the deal tanked. If I was going to lose money I would rather just as well lose it holding more Noront shares (lol).

My expectation tomorrow: Noront will stay relatively stable (as stable as it can be of course given its history) and FreeWest will see a shorting frenzy the likes has not been seen since the first Windfall hole 100 results were released. I hope for the sake of my FWR friends that I am wrong and that your share price has truly found its true value in the last three weeks but something tells me that the shareprice was linked to the Noront share price of late and not vice versa. A tanked takeover deal always has repurcussions for the company being taken over.

FWR is still a great company with decent prospects and good properties. Unfortunately it will most likely always be riding the coat tails of Noront, which was been the case since November 2006 when we look at Windfall Lake and the Ring of Fire.

Should make for an interesting trading day tomorrow and a lot more interesting comments on the FWR board. In the meantime NOTTERS, we still have everything in place that was here on October 4, the day before the takeover proposal. We will be fine.

Take care all,

M1.

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