HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

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Message: Re: A Few Things Stand Out As Likely Aspects Of This Scenario

Yes, there is no doubt that both VALE and Xstrata would like to acquire the entire RoF. But, CLF already has skin and sweat in the game, and is plenty big enough to take out FWR. Now, I am thinking, say Vale, says,"we can't let anyone get FWR ahead of us", they jump in with a bid for FWR, say $1 a share. They could then sit back for a long, long time pecking away at NOT. If they wanted to make a quicker followup for NOT, it would be extremely expensive. The FWR purchase would have been a shot in their own foot. So, in that scenario, consistent with your view, Vale or Xstrata should be making their bid for NOT now, before the price goes up significantly. But also consider that the big miners have many options for growth. There are dozens of junior nickel mines in decent jurisdictions. The capital cost of full development could hardly be a justifiable financial commitment right now even for the big guys. And, they hardly need the ore.

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