Let's agree to disagree here. If NOT turns out to be a profitable deal for any of the Majors, it will go well before 5 years are over. Who can afford to miss opportunities the shape and size NOT may have ? How did the Majors become Majors, yep because they invested in the right spots at the right time. 'Cash is king' is a temporary slogan to them. Undervaluation is no sorrow, since undervalued situation here can turn around anytime.

A market recovery will certainly help but didn't one of the big oil companies in the eighties make high investments during that crisis and came out as the number 1 in profitability and size ? That's the way it works and it is not even anti cycle behaviour we will see, it will merely be the dollars in the eyes.