Disclaimer: I could well be wrong and likely some forum members will quite properly correct me.

My feeling is that speculators on the 'futures' market had a lot to do with running up commodity and especially metal prices beyond what supply/demand on it's own would have.

Now many 'speculators' recently had to unwind huge positions and many are now squeaky clean after a lengthy 'bath' in cold water.

Speculators in 'Futures' are rightfully scared and not inclined to make previous large 'bets'. This has had, along with expected lower demand due to recession, a major effect on pricing as the Futures and Spot price do move in somewhat of a 'lock step'.

No question that commodity price got away from close relationship to supply/demand curve but the speculators rush for the exits has dropped current prices well below what would be considered a reasonable retraction.

Question is, if I'm right, is how long it will take for commodity pricing to reconnect with supply/demand with increased pricing?