Re: Assume the position - Rosedale
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 06, 2008 09:53AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Excellent statement Rosedale.
Over dinner last night the discussion of Canadian junior mining stocks came up with my father-in-law asking about long term potential.
I said that in this market, I am all in with Noront, regardless of what the current share price is doing for the following reasons:
1) It is my crude estimation that could see 500 juniors fail in the next 6 to 12 months. Either by closing the doors or diluting the existing share base to raise capital. Either way, current shareholders are screwed. It is why I sold out 100% to move into NOT.
There is no difference between the car dealership in the US who cannot get a line of credit to bring in the 2009 cars or the Canadian junior who cannot get new investment capital. Without new cash there is no company.
2) Noront has a lot of money in the bank as of last week (32 Million). Though there cash burn is 3 - 4M a month, this could be ramped down substantially if needed. The money be spent today is being spent to quickly establish what is in the ground. If needed, they could take a slower approach until better market conditions prevail. They do not have to make this call for at least four to six months.
3) Money lost in banks and blue chip companies today will take a lot longer to recover than money lost in commodities. Most bluechips are economy or country specific and rely on a strong domestic market. Commodities rely on a strong world market and can buffer some regional downturns. Look at how many blue chips are in trouble and we quickly realize the reward to risk equation from the past no longer holds true.
Money in Noront is money invested in real assets in the ground that will always have a worth, though the given worth on any day will be higher or lower than the day before. Unlike blue-chips that rely on sales and revenue numbers, dividends, and the health of suppliers and resellers, mineral companies rely on three things: demand (reflected in commodity pricing), assets (reflected by tonnage) and operating costs (cost to mine and process a tonne of ore). As long as there is a supply of ore (assets) that can be processed (cost) lower than the market price (demand), money can be made in any market.
4) Noront is the #1 TSX Venture mining company (in 2007) for a reason. They hit the motherlode and know what their doing. This is more than a one hole hit and pump. They continue to identify and strike targets. This takes skills and experience and Noront has been building a team that looks like a NHL All star team. When you are going for Gold in the Olympics we put our best players on the ice. When you are going for Gold and other metals in Windfall and the ROF, we find and put the best players on the ground. Noront has the team assembled and the money to continue paying them until all this turns around.
Four reasons why I can enjoy my dinner on a Sunday night and hold Noront with confidence. Watching the share price today is like watching the weather. Once it starts to get cold it does not really matter if it is -10 or -50. No outdoor BBQ is going to happen until the seasons change and the weather improves as it always does.
We are in a financial winter here folks and it is extremely cold. But spring has always returned, even after the most brutal winters. And once it does nobody cares that it was -50 a few months earlier. All that matters is the BBQ.
M1.