What is a reasonable % starting point of GMV in the event of a takeover?
posted on
Sep 24, 2008 04:20AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Part 2
What a day... this is real what is happening to NOT. I have discussed that the junior market itself will have to turn higher before we see noticeable traction. I still think this is the case, in spite of the beauty release.
Our management seem to know we have this puppy by the tail... the big question they are addressing, how do we make the most out of this world class asset?
I don’t like to cut and paste, but here’ s the highlights and my comments, at least as I see it.
“75 meters from 337.5 meters onwards, averaging 38.2% Cr2O3” Wow…I get it, this is a beauty. This is world class.
“will potentially place this discovery amongst the best chrome deposits in the world.” Thanks, in case I didn’t get it, this could be world class. lol
“the grades being encountered in holes reported to date, are consistently greater than 40% Cr2O3, have a Cr:Fe ratio that approximates 2:1. This conceptually, would allow for the rock to be fed directly into smelters without any further processing.” Important for the major sniffing, or the shareholder who bought at $6 and thinks they should sell… maybe there is some value here afterall.
“At current world contract market prices for chrome, of $2.05 (USD…, the grade of 40% Cr2O3 would command a price of around $600 per tonne delivered to a deep water port.” This says it all… thanks for my roughly equivalent 2/3-ounce per tonne gold find… (lets throw around 100 million tonnes and figure how much gold equivalent that would be…it’s not Busang, but Busang never was. This seems pretty good. lol.
“Early drilling at Blackbird Two identified three parallel bands of massive chromitite that appear to be of similar size and visual nature to the Blackbird One discovery.” Sounds like much more to come.
“Noront and other ROF Companies who continue to drill in the area have encountered and are now delineating a potential new Chromite belt that is still open at both ends along strike, where the ROF continues on ground wholly owned by Noront.” We got the sweet spot here.. we have the land…. End of story… and if it happens to run on someone else’s land… it means we got rich in the process.
“Due to the high number of samples that are being submitted for INAA analysis and the dependency on a research reactor located at MacMaster University in Hamilton Ontario, Canada, there is currently a large backlog of samples awaiting final analysis.” Patience is a virtue…. This we cannot overcome… we need patience.
While tax loss selling is certainly underway, I suspect those that aren’t tapped out are considering the risk in this project and wondering… if I liked this at $6 before the chrome, perhaps I like it even more at $1.80 and a potentially world class find on our hands.
The best line of the day says it all. …. NEWS - Noront Continues to Outline World Class Chromite Mineralization at Blackbird One and Two
We finally stepped up and said it….WORLD CLASS .
I was asked a few times yesterday about NOT… what is happening… I referred my friends to the release and simply said… we have something of significant value, and it is unfolding. I tried to explain what $600 per tonne ore is worth, especially over 40 million tonnes plus, or the indicated starting point for a major…
Aside, I humbly ask the board if anyone can determine what a reasonable % starting point is for GMV in the event of a takeover… I don’t think we get 20 or 30% on chrome… I look at the deflated values of miners and suspect that those with cashflows and production should trade at a 3 or 4 times premium to a non producer with similar assets in the ground… …if a producer has X tonnes of chome at X %,… can we deduct their production premium and try determine a suitable price for ourselves. Is it even worth the effort?
I mentioned today 5% GMV on 40million tonnes at $600 per tonne… given the result it seems hard to believe.. but, we are looking at $1.2Billion on takeover given above terms… We don’t know what is reasonable here…. Can our share price so poorly reflect what looks like a staggering asset?
Perhaps the next time any of our leaders talk to Richard, they could ask this question…. What do our advisors, JPMorgan, feel is a reasonable GMV takeout level for our chrome? Lets put this baby to rest and at minimum set our takeover candidates expectations at the right level… that means you CVRD and XSTRATA/Glencore/ or perhaps International Ferrochrome.
This market is scary, try to keep your wits the next few days… the buy of our life may be knocking shortly.
Burning the midnight oil.
due your own DD, not financial advise
regards
cwallace