Asian stocks jump on U.S. bailout
posted on
Sep 07, 2008 06:35PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
We should see a good day tomorrow and for the week...
HONG KONG AND NEW YORK — Asian stocks jumped nearly 3 per cent and government bonds tumbled Monday after Washington took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to save the U.S. housing market and limit the extensive damage of the financial crisis
The yen fell against major currencies as the rescue of the top mortgage finance companies, possibly the biggest U.S. government bailout ever, was seen helping investors' willingness to take risks.
Still, the impact of the rescue package on the U.S. government's fiscal position could ultimately hurt the U.S. dollar, some analysts said, a prospect that helped to send Treasury yields higher.
"You do take some of default risk out of the market, so in that sense this is good for other financial assets. You have reduced systemic default risk," said Paul Schulte, regional strategist with Lehman Brothers in Hong Kong.
"Longer-term we have a lot more glass to crawl over because we have arrangements with other financial institutions that need to get worked out," he said.
Japan's Nikkei share average rose 2.9 per cent, bouncing from a 5-1/2-month low on Friday. Beaten down shares of exporters such as Canon Inc. and Honda Motor Co. led the index higher.
The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks traded outside of Japan was up 2.7 per cent, also rebounding from the lowest since October 2006.
South Korea's KOSPI climbed 3.5 per cent after ending on Friday at the lowest since March 2007 while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 3.2 per cent.
The U.S. government on Sunday seized control of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee half of all U.S. mortgages, ending weeks of speculation after regulators judged the companies' shrinking capital position left them too vulnerable.
As part of the plan, the Treasury is taking an equity stake in the companies and promised to purchase mortgage-backed securities they issue and provide however much liquidity is necessary to keep them afloat - actions that together could top $200-billion (U.S.).
Citigroup analysts said the longer Washington increases its debt by figuring a way out essentially to restructure the housing market, the more the dollar and U.S. assets in general are seen in a negative light.
"This stops well short of the "nightmare scenario where foreign investors start to sell the stock of their U.S. holdings, triggering a U.S. dollar collapse, but represents another factor arguing against more dollar-favourable capital flows," the analysts said in a note.
U.S. Treasuries fell sharply in reaction to the Fannie and Freddie bailout. Benchmark 10-year Treasury prices fell, pushing up yields to as high as 3.90 per cent up from 3.71 per cent in late U.S. trading on Friday.
Japanese government bond futures fell, following a slide in U.S. Treasuries and a surge in equity markets. September 10-year futures slumped 0.80 point to 137.88 at the open and extended losses to as low as 137.43, down 1.25 points. They hit a five-month peak of 139.09 on Friday.
U.S. stock index futures surged on Sunday, pointing to a sharply higher opening on Wall Street on Monday after the news.
In the United States, the bailout was seen as one that could aid a recovery of the broken U.S. housing market and arrest a slide in stock and credit markets worldwide.
Overall, the move is a positive for banks around the world, including Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG that invested in U.S. mortgages, according to Daniel Alpert, managing director at the investment bank Westwood Capital. And in electronic trading Sunday evening, futures for the major U.S. stock indexes all rose about 2 per cent.
"There's no doubt in my mind that this will stabilize the mortgage market," Mr. Alpert said.
The government's decision to take control of the two companies - which own or guarantee about half the nation's mortgage debt - removes a huge cloud that has been hovering over skittish markets.
Still, many investors likely will want to see hard evidence of home prices bottoming before they jump back into stocks wholeheartedly. They're also going to be asking what the government will do next to help distressed homeowners pay their mortgages and get people to start buying houses again.
"Right now, Fannie and Freddie are the mortgage market, and that has been choked. If this helps to clear the way for the housing market to recover, it will filter through to the rest of the market," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford. "Anything that helps bring a bottom to housing prices, helps put in a floor, is going to be a boon for the overall market."
Stock markets around the globe have been extremely volatile and directionless lately. The Dow Jones industrial average is still above its mid-July lows, but remains down more than 20 per cent from the record it reached last October.
Companies have struggled as credit has gotten more expensive - or impossible to obtain. Chrysler Financial, for example, was recently only able to renew $24-billion (U.S.) of its $30-billion in credit lines, while the clothing retailer Steve & Barry's LLC blamed its inability to borrow money as it sought bankruptcy court protection in July.
A big reason for the volatility had been the uncertainty over the fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which the U.S. Treasury placed into a conservatorship.
"The clarity and certainty it will provide to the status of the two institutions should have a stabilizing effect on the markets, banking system and the mortgage industry," Federal Insurance Deposit Corp. Chairman Sheila C. Bair said in a statement.
The bailout itself does have its negatives - notably, diluting Fannie's and Freddie's common and preferred shares to near-worthless levels.
However, those securities have plummeted so much over the past year that holders have already seen the bulk of their losses. Moreover, the FDIC's Ms. Bair pointed out that only a few small institutions have significant exposure to Fannie and Freddie's stock, and that regulators will work closely with those banks to develop capital-restoration plans.
Questions remain about whether financial institutions are valuing their debt-related assets correctly, according to Westwood Capital's Mr. Alpert.
But the government's decision to inject more money into the debt market - a multitrillion-dollar source of funding for the world's businesses - by buying Fannie and Freddie securities should help stanch bank's losses.
Soaring mortgage defaults led to a seize-up last summer in the debt market that has only worsened as home prices have continued to fall. The credit crisis has caused the financial industry to write down the value of its assets by more than $300-billion, and lose hundreds of billions of dollars more in actual credit losses.
However, Mr. Alpert added, it will take more than a bailout of Fannie and Freddie to fix the housing crisis, caused by several years of loose lending standards that let people put very little money down to buy a home. He said the move might modestly reduce mortgage rates for potential homebuyers, but that "mortgage rates aren't really the issue."
The U.S. economy has lost jobs for eight straight months.
"You don't buy houses if you don't have confidence," said Mr. Krosby, who said the market will likely view the Treasury's takeover as a positive move but not a cure-all.
"This is an important step, but it has be part of an overall program to get buyers to come in and step into the housing market," he said. "You're going to need other elements, other packages, to get it going again."