Mrs.Wallace: contrarian indicator
posted on
Jul 22, 2008 07:19PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Good Evening NOT
I was welcomed home this afternoon to Mrs Wallace inquiring " if the Double Eagle find was a laterite deposit or a sulphide deposit?" I laughed and asked her why her renewed interest in Noront... ( I assure you Mrs. Wallace has already heard everything she needs to know about Mcfaulds... in fact to the point, I don't bother talking about it anymore. But, given the bait, I responded, "no,it is a sulphide deposit, why?"
To which Mrs. Wallace responds, "Are you sure because if it's laterite, we are hooped. You might as well sell your NOT because the National Post has an article and Laterite deposits are not going to be viable."
I laughed and said "there are some beauty laterite deposits in the world, but if it makes you feel better, our find was sulphide." She responded that she "heard the price of nickel was going to fall"... to which I laughed and said "it is off almost 2/3 already from the high last year." I told Mrs. Wallace "that we have an incredible find... and there is so much more to come, to relax and let me do the stressing."
It got me thinking... aside from 1.Nickel being absolutely beaten up, and the constant barrage on the commodity space, what else have we faced.
2. The obvious, we are in the midst of one of the worst financial crisis period.... we haven't been trading tulips, but, trading cow manure is a fair comparison.
I read today Wachovia's quarterly loss in dollar terms was larger then the dollar value of Barrick Gold's 2007 (based on 950 gold) They lost more then the largest gold produce on the planet can produce.... Can you believe that? I would like to see them have to take a long position to make that loss up. Somehow, I think that loss will be covered out of thin air or a printing press.
3. On a recent Sprott conference call comparisons of junior pm stocks were shown to be at the cheapest they've been since 2001.... if you weren't in juniors then, I'm sure you've asked yourself what if I had just got in when this thing was getting going... we may be there again. Currently, and in recent past, juniors have been an awful place... there are few portfolios focused on juniors that aren't blood red. Here's hoping sentiment changes.
There is plenty of issues facing us, but these 3 whammies are enough to send most of the kids home for the day... this is a brutal market, but likely there is tremendous opportunity here for those that can "bear" it.
So now that we've covered the three bears, how about the pluses.
Most have already ran through them... but, the most exciting thing I see ahead is the AT1 Drilling and the neighbor Fancamp drilling.... this is coming. I can't imagine two more highly touted drill targets then these two... (well perhaps the two duds GXS just put out, I digress).
Add to that, the potential for the Bullseye JV target and the FWR 100% claim, as well as AT12, and we ave 5 potential catalysts to take us way higher. ( i realise there is plenty of other activity.) I like the odds... and any hit, neighbor or NOT, will add tonnage and should help reignite the excitement in this area and stock.
In the end, it's up to Mungall and Novak and Co. to drop those drills on the best targets, and "let them sing."
A final note, when Mrs Wallace starts wondering about the market and NOT, there is likely some serious negative sentiment out there that has worn her down and got through to her. I'm willing to bet, atleast in this case, that she is the best contrarian indicator I know.
God give us all the patience to get through the next three months, or for that matter this year. It appears business is about to pick up and I suspect many NOT investors are getting worn down by all that is going on outside of the world of NOT... keep your eye on the prize... this story has many chapters to go.
not financial advise, due your own dd
regards
cwallace