Peter Koven's "Financial Post" article is a good example of being fooled by a positive "black swan": the reality of NOT.V and the Ring of Fire.

I explained "black swans" in earlier posts (June 27, 2008 12:18PM, and same day, 2:01 PM): they are highly improbable events of great consequence. They happen more often than most people think.

Merely because the NOT.V story appears improbable, some people believe the NOT.V story must be too good to be true. I wrote that such people "falsely conclude the NOT.V story is extreme hype over very rare, but very small, lucky strikes into tiny ore bodies."

Look at Koven's use of words implying NOT.V is hype:

"heavily hyped project," "hotly anticipated," "most promising ... in years," "hottest topic in the junior mining world," and "very high-grade discovery."

He then goes on to make it sound too good to be true by next listing several reasons for being skeptical, and waiting to invest:

"not nearly big enough," "remote area has no roads or power," "needs a lot more work," "relatively small," "there has been very little drilling," and "the Ring of Fire has lost momentum with investors."

As I said in my 6/27/08 2:01 PM post, "To believe the unbelievable (that is, to recognize a black swan early in the game), is beyond the risk-taking rules followed by most investors/traders."

By the time NOT.V and the Ring of Fire are proven, and widely accepted as being real, NOT.V's stock price will be in the double digits.

I write about "black swan investing" on this forum to help some readers here better understand that positive black swans like NOT.V do exist in reality. They provide once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to multiply your initial stake many times.

Rek