Not sure how productive it is to guess at possible short term market possibilities (next 30 days) but interesting to kick around even for those longs not interested in letting go until an eventual buy out of Noront.

Here goes though:

Roughly 130 million shares available for trading and you have to think 50 million are in the tight fists of Management and Institutional type big boys who aren't letting go at all. Another 50 million in the hands of those who are hugely in the money already and letting things ride.

That leaves 30 million shares in the hands of those perhaps more inclined to play the market, take some money off the table or are upside down in the stock at the moment. Take 10 million shares off for those upside down who aren't going to sell below $6 leaving 20 million in possibly weaker hands.

The above guesstimate might indicate why the fireworks when we see 5 million shares a day trading. It won't be on a down tick but on an uptick and the actual 'float' of willing sellers is a lot lower than you might expect for a company with 130 million shares outstanding.

Last few times around we saw huge daily gains in share price, larger than that seen on recent downturn. One could expect exactly the same situtation developing as willing buyers enter the market only to find considerably fewer sellers than one might expect to see.

Oh yeah, to me that means selling shares to take money off the table even a day too soon could cost a dollar or more a share. By all means wait for explosive news but that's a sign to hold not sell.