Re: Stillwater - Poly
in response to
by
posted on
May 28, 2008 03:51PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Yes I did post a rule of thumb putting Windfall at $1 valuation. Note that I always state 'AT THIS TIME' when talking conservative value on holdings because every news release or exploration progress changes things.
So where is my personal 'rule of thumb' sitting? I'd say Windfall and holdings outside of 'ROF' still only $1 and going to take some time to prove up more than $130 million dollars.
DE1 has to be close to having 43-101 and while we argue about placing 10% or 20 or even 30% of insitu value on this the fact is we still don't know the average grade or total proven size. I've always figured $4 for this one deposit and analysts sort of agree on this figure providing other deposits in area are found.
DE2 already looks to be proven to be worth minimum of one dollar and this can only change upwards as more and more is known about it.
Other jv's and extensive ROF holdings absolutely have to be assigned a 'Blue Sky' value of a dollar. Enough drilling is done for the Geologist to put a finger on the Ring of Fire Intrustion and know darn near for certain that other deposits on the 'arc' will be found.
So $1 + $4 + $1 = $6 which is pretty much rock bottom and majors would be opening their pocket books if they thought they could buy out Noront for that kind of money 'Tomorrow'.
Buying at under $5 looks a lot more secure than the market trading suggests but that's nothing new.
What still attracts is the 'speculation' that's not in the above figures. Like DE1 isn't finished with and could end up being worth twice the $4 placed on it. DE2 could be worth 4 times the value I've 'thumbed' it at. Now what do you think the look alike DE1 the geo's are searching for is going to be worth when they find it?
All in all the potential for Noront is over $20 a share and current asset value, by my figures around $6. How long do you really feel the market will continue to insist on a 20% discount instead of a 20% premium which would put Noront's share price up to $7.20 **Which by the way is the price I figured it would stabalize around.
You can disagree and some will think I'm high while most believe it's low BUT can anyone really think DE1 is only worth 2 dollars per Noront Share and the rest of the ROF properties worth 1 dollar? Because today that's all the market seems to think it's worth.
Personally I think the market will eventually recognize how out of whack things are and things will correct upwards. Handing a nice profit to those that buy now and handing back the paper loss to most longs that have been hanging on and biting their nails.