There is one thing missing from your analysis and that is putting a dollar value on right entry price to purchase Noront shares. You'll have to change that assigned value as exploration and other news is released.

Part of due dilligence is looking at the number of shares outstanding and 'market cap' of the company involved. If the Market Cap is less than what you feel the company is worth at the time you are buying shares then it's a good deal.

Part of any exploration companies 'Market Cap' is going to be speculation concerning what they are likely to add in the way of value by turning up more deposits or defining what they have already found.

At the current time you can buy shares (this could change very quickly upon release of DE2 news) for $5 .

Windfall will have a bulk sample sent to a near by mill to be turned into Gold, quite possibly this year. Previous drilling has shown rich ore and Noront didn't invest $12 million dollars on a quess so it's taken almost as a given that Windfall is equal to about a dollar a share in value. This could increase by the end of the year as positive results come in but for now a lot of people think $1 is reasonable.

All other Noront properties are in too early a stage for the Market to put any real value on. That's not likely to change unless something unexpected turns up.

Noront's Double Eagle property is what drop the share price up and will continue to contribute the most potential value. DE1 is still undefined as to size and average grade but it's a hum dinger due to grades with value assigned being somewhat low as the market thinks that on it's own it might not be large enough to be economic. The question marks seem to have caused the market to put a value currently of about $3 on DE1

DE2 has been found and a lot of drill holes poked in it but no assay results or indication of size yet released. This is the ore body which will indicate to the market if an economic mine/mines have been found. It will also bump the value placed on DE1. It ALSO will confirm that the likelyhood of finding additional deposits is much more likely. Right now however the Market seems to just little value on DE2 as it's lumped into $1 of speculative or 'Blue Sky'.

So the 'Market' says Noront's worth $5 are they right or wrong? What's in it for me to buy at this or higher price?

Well in longer term it seems likely Windfall will turn out to be worth more than $1 a share, lots of shares out so maybe upside conservatively at $1.50

DE1 value depends not only on resource there but on DE2/3 turning up. Since Noront wouldn't throw away money drilling DE2 like mad the past two months it's more likely than not that DE2 is going to be good enough to make DE1 economic as well as having good value in it's own right. I'm figuring it increases value of DE1 by at least a dollar and DE2 has to be worth another dollar as soon as a rough idea of size/grade is released (this will increase as more is known).

So my back of the envelope figures say market value per share right now should be around $7.50 if you're planning on a six month hold. That figure has much smaller 'Blue Sky' or speculative value than is likely to be assigned when DE2 is proven AND DE3 (or deposit turned up by other players in the ROF) identified.

I'll trade $5 for the prospect of $7.50 in six months only because the downside seems reasonable. Sure it's possible no other deposit will be turned up but given the money going into exploring the 'ROF' is it really likely?

The other consideration is what to do if the price goes to $6 or $7 next week. Is it still a good buy? My feeling is that it will be because that move in share price is going to be due to assays and exploration results NOT figured in to my back of envelope figuring. As the weeks and months go by and exploration results come in the Market Value of Noront will change. A lot of fence sitters seem to thnk buying Noront at $6 or higher is a safer or better choice than buying now simple because the next release of exploration will put concerns about viabilty to rest. Those investors would rather pay an extra dollar or two for the security and confidence given.

*If some long investors get testy if may be because there is a huge spread right now between what they see as current total value of Noront compared to what the 'Market' places on it. I'm one of them because $7 is what I honestly believe is fair at this time, even before DE2 results, and a lot of others feel $8 is cheap.